Deterrence is once more at the centre of discussions on national security. Faced with larger revisionist neighbours driven by aggressive foreign policies, Taiwan and states in the Nordic-Baltic region are drawing lessons from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine to understand how to enhance deterrence in their respective theatres.
These lessons, properly executed, drastically raise the costs for any aggressor. By involving both the military and civil society in the defence of the nation, territorially small states can redesign defence in depth to deter an aggressor across the entire spectrum of conflict.
• Ukraine: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 offers distinct lessons about societal readiness for other societies seeking to enhance their deterrence capacities. The willingness of Ukrainians to join the defence of their country in 2014 and 2022 proved critical to preserving the country’s sovereignty against the Russian assault. Civil defence has the potential to signal resolve and capability, thus enhancing deterrence.
• The Nordic-Baltic region: The countries of the Nordic-Baltic space perceive Russia as a threat to their security, prompting them to rearm and improve deterrence across all domains. Going back to the fundamentals of deterrence has become essential, as doing so enhances defence capabilities through increased procurement, strengthening alliance resolve and credibility, and pushing the alliance to signal resolve.
• China and Taiwan: Just as the Nordic-Baltic countries and Taiwan are drawing lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war, Beijing is also observing it with close attention. For China’s defence intellectuals, the war presents critical lessons for how it wages hybrid warfare and conducts operations in the grey zone. These conjectures have implications for cross-strait relations as Taipei’s partners calibrate their security policy in the region. Going forward, the choice between cross-domain deterrence and integrated deterrence will define the strategic choices to deter China.
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