With opposition leaders now either imprisoned or fled, president Aleksander Lukashenko of Belarus is facing some tough choices in both the domestic- and foreign-policy theatres. Having lost the support of many Belarusians, infuriating the West and demonstrating weakness to Russia, Lukashenko’s chances of pulling off a peaceful transition of power akin to the “Kazakh scenario” seem challenging.
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It is unlikely that the protests that followed the arrest of Alexei Navalny on 17 January will overturn the political system that has governed Russia in one form or another since Vladimir Putin became President of the Russian Federation in March 2000. But Russia’s polity is now broken, and it is most unlikely to be repaired until it is replaced.
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Less than a decade ago, the Arctic region was widely regarded as an extraordinary, peaceful region. Brought about by a combination of a harsh geography incentivising cooperation over conflict and by the commitment of the Arctic countries themselves, the region was hailed in many quarters as exceptional, a place where the traditional rules of power politics had been, if not dismantled, then at least reined in. This is no longer the case.
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As in any massive organisations across the world, changes in the armed forces of the Russian Federation do not take place overnight or even on a yearly basis.
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As usual, Russia is trying to benefit from Georgia’s toxic political environment and capitalise on the divisions. It has doubled down on its pressure and blackmail to push the vulnerable country towards formally changing its pro-Western foreign policy course. By undermining its democratic credentials and Western integration, Georgia is naturally sliding towards Russia’s orbit.
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Kremlin expected several serious foreign policy disappointments in the Balkan countries at the end of 2020. Russia’s monopoly on the gas market in the Balkans has been shaken, and Belgrade and Pristina move towards normalisation of economic relations.
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A grim joke from Soviet times: A Soviet citizen is thrown into jail. “How long is your sentence?” he is asked by his cell mates. “Ten years,” he replies. “For what?” ask the cellmates. “For nothing,” he says. “You liar!” say the cellmates. “They only give five for nothing!”
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Since entering into force in 2011, the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) has helped to verifiably reduce deployed and non-deployed nuclear delivery vehicles and deployed nuclear warheads. The Treaty is due to expire in 2021, unless the parties agree to an extension – a process that has been initiated, but the outcome remains to be seen.
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Remarks at Conference on Biden and Europe, Co-Sponsored by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and the Wilson Center, 14 January 2021.
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Polling data shows that Russians are increasingly dissatisfied with the actions of their government. However, judging by many indicators, this discontent is not directly correlated with the growth of pro-Western sentiment in the country. Most Russians still perceive the Western world, and in particular the United States, with some hostility.
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