The US and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, will meet in Geneva on 16 June, at Biden’s invitation. But Russia has given no sign that it is ready to de-escalate tensions or to engage constructively on critical issues.
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It is quite extraordinary to see a state being rebuffed by Hamas, berated by the Ryanair CEO, admired by a boss of a Russian state propaganda outlet and prompting an immediate response from the EU that goes beyond “deep concern”—all within 36 hours of a major civil aviation incident. Whatever the reaction, we must give it to them: the regime in Minsk played by the “book of rogues” as a deserving and almost exemplary disciple of its big brother in Moscow. Can it be stopped from attempting similar stunts in the future? Probably not, so we will have to be prepared.
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Russia has built and applied a conflict-resolution model in post-Soviet conflicts that is both robust and effective, given the Kremlin’s goals. If any improvement is desired, the EU and its Western partners should stop legitimising this model and instead switch to policies that make this Russian model costly to sustain.
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The announcement by Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergey Shoygu, on 22 April that Russia would be withdrawing the forces it had assembled for the ‘snap exercises’ launched on 7 April has been met by as much confusion as relief. In the time that has passed since that announcement, statements by the Biden administration and the proposed Biden-Putin summit have increased confusion rather than dispelled it.
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The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.
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One cannot ignore the misfortune of others in counterintelligence—international cooperation is necessary. Ignoring unacceptable actions that occur elsewhere or failing to discuss them at home means more victims in the future.
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The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.
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The attention being paid to the geopolitical implications of the situation developing on the Russia-Ukraine border should not overshadow the need to also respond to Russia’s day-to-day manipulation of Ukrainian society, especially in the regions located near occupied Crimea and the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
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The medical success of Sputnik V would—like any other coronavirus vaccine—doubtless benefit mankind, but its use as a geopolitical soft-power weapon would certainly further worsen the already critically bad relations between Russia and the West.
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Hot information war, creeping escalation and other warnings and developments indicate that Russia is moving towards another attack on Ukraine. Will it be annexation of Donbas, a launch of full-scale military operations or insertion of Russian ‘peacekeepers’?
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