Kazakhstan‘s largest and most violent protests ever lasted just a few days, but showcased the fragility in Central Asia, a region in the midst of great power rivalry. Kazakhstan was not a major distraction for the Kremlin this time, but may still become a serious headache in the future.
Read more
The collective Putin, the Russia of grievance, ambition and resentment, was born the day the Soviet Union died. Today, it lives off the creation and harvesting of threats. The crushing of civil society inside Russia and threats to Ukraine are two sides of a coin. Ukraine’s independence and Western security are also two sides of a coin, as Russia’s latest demands confirm.
Read more
Although the word ‘electricity’ is currently associated primarily with concerns about high prices, the fact that a stable and secure electric power supply is a national security issue essential for the functioning of the whole economy and society must not be overlooked. This is especially true for the Baltic states which continue to be connected to the Russia-managed synchronous electricity system.
Read more
The quadrennial exercise, Zapad, often prompts speculation that its real purpose is to provide cover for Russia to build up forces to attack a neighbouring state. This year’s iteration of the exercise took place during a tense period, with NATO-Russia relations at a low point, Russia moving large military units near Ukraine, and Minsk driven closer into Moscow’s embrace.
Read more
Between 10–16 September 2021, Russia and its ally Belarus conducted the active phase of the Zapad-2021 command-staff exercise. Zapad tests Russian warfighting capabilities in the Western operational direction and thus it has a strong anti-NATO character. This has always been the case.
Read more
Since the end of President Vladimir Putin’s second term (2004–2008), Moscow has increasingly been looking north. In the West, this has fuelled an alarmist discourse about a ‘race for the Arctic’, but the renewed focus on the Arctic is just as much about domestic development: transforming Moscow’s frozen backyard into a ‘strategic resource base for the 21st century’.
Read more
When, in the context of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin demands legal guarantees from NATO Allies that the Alliance will not enlarge further east, he is asking for nothing less than a revision of the 1949 Washington Treaty, whose Article 10 stipulates: “The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty.”
Read more
In the last decade, the Black Sea has become a de facto arena for competing and objectively irreconcilable strategic interests, where an opportunistic Russia has unilaterally changed the security architecture and dynamics in the region via not only conventional military means, but also highly sophisticated and hybrid means that have allowed Moscow plausible deniability.
Read more
When Belarus suddenly began bringing migrants to Lithuania’s border this summer to create a refugee crisis on the Lithuanian side, people were surprised and aghast. They should not have been.
Read more
Europe is under growing pressure from the East. First, the dictator of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, after a test run of weaponised waves of migrants against the Lithuanian and Latvian borders over the summer, has now sent not just hundreds but thousands of migrants to breach the borders of the European Union. Kuźnica, on the Polish border, was only the first major attempt; many more are likely to follow to coerce the EU into accepting the regime in Minsk as legitimate and lifting the sanctions.
Read more