While Baltic security thinking has long been dominated by assessments of the risk of Russian military aggression in Europe, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was still a shock in its brutality and scale. It has led the three Baltic states to further increase defence spending and to accelerate the building of national defence capabilities.
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The Kremlin has made no secret of the importance it attaches to military power as an instrument of foreign policy, most obviously in Georgia from 2008, in Ukraine from 2014, and in Syria from 2015. Below the threshold of war, Russia has frequently used military instruments to harass other states, including in the Baltic region.
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The Baltic states, although not immune to disinformation, have accumulated unique experience and developed effective methods to resist and combat this malice.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been game-changing for Europe’s security, challenging the long-held beliefs and assumptions of many Western nations and prompting dramatic shifts in policy, for example, in Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The war’s conduct has also produced significant surprises, not least the unexpectedly poor performance of Russia’s supposedly reformed military.
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Last week Estonia and Latvia followed Lithuania and quit what used to be known as 16+1, as the Czech Republic and other participating countries become increasingly vocal in their scepticism of the initiative.
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The seventh brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns Russia’s military and political preparations for attacking Ukraine through the prism of indicators of possible intent to conduct large-scale combat operations.
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It is that time of the year again. Congress is busy with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Analysts write scathing critiques of the budget. Generals roam Capitol Hill, and defense lobbyists lurk in corners begging for a few more dollars.
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In the fourth brief of the series, Martin Hurt analyses the achievements of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine and compares them with the NATO’s existing forces and capabilities.
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In the third brief of the series, Dr Ronald Ti examines Russia’s failures in planning and executing logistics operations for its war in Ukraine. In large part, these failures can be attributed to systemic weaknesses such as its ‘push’ (rather than ‘pull’) approach to expeditionary logistics, overly centralised command, a lack of non-commissioned officers, and a culture of bullying and corruption.
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As the fog of war is always thick with lies and half-truths, it is useful not just for high-ranking decision-makers but also for regular citizens to maintain their practical sense of resilience against harmful disinformation. We must remain pragmatically calm in our everyday behaviour and see problems not just in terms of their immediate impact but also in relation to longer time frames and the variability of predictable consequences.
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