As a new government takes power under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, it is opportune to ask what the Baltic states want from Germany in terms of their security, and what might they realistically expect?
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The path to net zero is going to be one of the most arduous tasks of this century. A complete transformation of the energy sector will be required to keep global temperatures in check. This is true in the Baltic states as it is everywhere else in the world.
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Although the word ‘electricity’ is currently associated primarily with concerns about high prices, the fact that a stable and secure electric power supply is a national security issue essential for the functioning of the whole economy and society must not be overlooked. This is especially true for the Baltic states which continue to be connected to the Russia-managed synchronous electricity system.
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There is a lot of action around emerging disruptive technologies (EDT) in Brussels these days. Both EU and NATO are already running or are about to start new funding instruments.
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Europe is under growing pressure from the East. First, the dictator of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, after a test run of weaponised waves of migrants against the Lithuanian and Latvian borders over the summer, has now sent not just hundreds but thousands of migrants to breach the borders of the European Union. Kuźnica, on the Polish border, was only the first major attempt; many more are likely to follow to coerce the EU into accepting the regime in Minsk as legitimate and lifting the sanctions.
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Vilnius has become the foreign policy centre of three Baltic states and this is a win for Tallinn too. The three states are growing out of their self-centric foreign policies.
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It is quite extraordinary to see a state being rebuffed by Hamas, berated by the Ryanair CEO, admired by a boss of a Russian state propaganda outlet and prompting an immediate response from the EU that goes beyond “deep concern”—all within 36 hours of a major civil aviation incident. Whatever the reaction, we must give it to them: the regime in Minsk played by the “book of rogues” as a deserving and almost exemplary disciple of its big brother in Moscow. Can it be stopped from attempting similar stunts in the future? Probably not, so we will have to be prepared.
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Thirty years ago, the collapse of the Soviet Union opened the door for three Baltic states to step on the pathway to independence, democracy, and prosperity. But the door did not open by itself.
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The three small states on the shores of the Baltic Sea are not geopolitical heavyweights in the global arena but working together they manage to achieve their strategic goals. Though the Baltic three seem to be destined to remain close, some rifts and open dissatisfactions have appeared and might once more damage the currently warm relations, says Dr Dovilė Budrytė, a professor of political science at Georgia Gwinnett College (U.S.).
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How will the developments outlined in the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, presented on 16 March 2021, and the Defence Command Paper published on 22 March affect the UK’s military presence and level of activity in the north-eastern corner of Europe and specifically in Estonia?
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