Vilnius has become the foreign policy centre of three Baltic states and this is a win for Tallinn too. The three states are growing out of their self-centric foreign policies.
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It is quite extraordinary to see a state being rebuffed by Hamas, berated by the Ryanair CEO, admired by a boss of a Russian state propaganda outlet and prompting an immediate response from the EU that goes beyond “deep concern”—all within 36 hours of a major civil aviation incident. Whatever the reaction, we must give it to them: the regime in Minsk played by the “book of rogues” as a deserving and almost exemplary disciple of its big brother in Moscow. Can it be stopped from attempting similar stunts in the future? Probably not, so we will have to be prepared.
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Thirty years ago, the collapse of the Soviet Union opened the door for three Baltic states to step on the pathway to independence, democracy, and prosperity. But the door did not open by itself.
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The three small states on the shores of the Baltic Sea are not geopolitical heavyweights in the global arena but working together they manage to achieve their strategic goals. Though the Baltic three seem to be destined to remain close, some rifts and open dissatisfactions have appeared and might once more damage the currently warm relations, says Dr Dovilė Budrytė, a professor of political science at Georgia Gwinnett College (U.S.).
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How will the developments outlined in the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, presented on 16 March 2021, and the Defence Command Paper published on 22 March affect the UK’s military presence and level of activity in the north-eastern corner of Europe and specifically in Estonia?
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In late 2020, Belarus inaugurated the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP). This facility – funded by the Russian government and built by the Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom – is one that Lithuania considers a threat to its national security. The project has already been causing frictions in the Baltic region that are yet to be resolved; the situation is emblematic of why and how Moscow is advancing its interests by exploiting the nuclear energy aspirations of various countries in Europe.
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After Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO put renewed focus onto its primary task of collective defence and deterrence. It has taken several important steps, but it would be a mistake to believe that NATO’s deterrence posture in the Baltic region is complete.
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Both as intellectual concept and as actionable strategy, deterrence is complex and multifaceted. This is certainly so in the Baltic region, where no one action or policy alone can guarantee security.
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Spring 2020 posed a test to the regional cooperation of the Nordic-Baltic region.
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Those who have read Clausewitz, not least of all the Russian military establishment, know that war is a tool of policy. Paraphrasing Clausewitz, Lenin stated that conflict and war are inseparable from the political conditions that engender them. The recommendations recently produced by a working group of experts from Russia, the United States and Europe depart from these insights.
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