The Kremlin has made no secret of the importance it attaches to military power as an instrument of foreign policy, most obviously in Georgia from 2008, in Ukraine from 2014, and in Syria from 2015. Below the threshold of war, Russia has frequently used military instruments to harass other states, including in the Baltic region.
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When the Swedish government under Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson submitted the Swedish application for NATO membership to NATO HQ in Brussels on May 18th, 2022, it was widely and correctly considered a historic event. But why did it happen? And why did it happen so seemingly fast? To understand this, both the peculiar history of Swedish security policy—or the “grand strategy”—and the recent developments must be taken into account.
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When Russia launched its open and brutal attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Finland immediately realized that the security environment had fundamentally changed overnight.
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Discussions about hydrogen’s role in the transition to carbon-neutral economies and the EU’s Green Deal seldom include consideration of geopolitical aspects and/or national security imperatives. However, given the importance of energy as a factor in global and regional geopolitical trends and national security, hydrogen development will reshape not only energy relations between countries but will also alter the broader geopolitical picture.
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President of France, Emmanuel Macron, whose country is currently holding the presidency of the Council of the European Union, does not want the EU to be relegated to the background behind NATO and the US. He wishes to demonstrate his ability to oppose Russia while also maintaining dialogue with Moscow.
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Finland and Sweden do not have a fast track to join NATO. If they apply for membership, they must be able to show they can meet NATO’s political, military, legal, resource and security preconditions, or at least have a plan to address any obvious shortfalls.
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In 2021, Estonia and Norway served as elected members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Both being relatively small states, defending multilateral cooperation and rules-based international order were important common goals.
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The Arctic is occupying an increasingly important position in connectivity between Asia and the Nordic-Baltic countries. This is not least because climate change opens up new economic opportunities to make use of the region’s vast resources and develop the northern transport routes. Along with possibilities, the need to ensure peaceful, norms-based and environmentally sustainable development in the Artic region poses a complex challenge.
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The Belarusian armed forces have limited capability. They are undermanned and mostly equipped with dated weapon systems. But as Russia’s only ally on its western border, Belarus would play a critical role in the event of a Russia-NATO conflict.
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At their summit in Brussels in June 2021, NATO leaders invited Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to lead the process of drafting a new strategic concept, expected to be agreed at their next meeting in Spain in 2022. NATO is challenged by Russia, China, and the south. Can its new concept find a balanced response?
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