Russia’s full-scale and genocidal invasion of Ukraine has already brought substantial changes to the relations of EU Eastern neighbourhood countries with Moscow, while its consequences are reshaping the geopolitical balance in the region.
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In recent weeks, French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a leading role in European diplomatic efforts to get the Russia-Ukraine conflict back from the brink of a major war. He deserves credit for his efforts to de-escalate tensions and strengthen Europe’s role in discussions over European security. However, his activity has met with a considerable degree of suspicion especially in Central and Eastern European countries, at least partly for legitimate reasons. This analysis examines three sets of explanations for this suspicion.
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President of France, Emmanuel Macron, whose country is currently holding the presidency of the Council of the European Union, does not want the EU to be relegated to the background behind NATO and the US. He wishes to demonstrate his ability to oppose Russia while also maintaining dialogue with Moscow.
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The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.
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The consequences for the Intermarium region of Russia’s (hypothetical) absorption of Belarus.
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On Monday 19 October, Estonia hosted the Three Seas Virtual Summit, marking the end of Estonia’s presidency of the initiative and handing over the reins to Bulgaria.
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Europe and the US have a number of common concerns caused by the rise of China that could help to repair transatlantic relations. Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries should invest in strengthening the EU’s unity and transatlantic cooperation vis-à-vis China rather than the 17+1 format.
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On 7 May, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky appointed former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili as head of the Executive Committee of Ukraine’s National Reform Council.
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For the Baltic states and Ukraine, national resilience, among other things, means rejecting (but not forgetting!) the Soviet heritage as utterly alien, retrograde and mind-intoxicating one.
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Romania gets along well with Turkey and is trying to fight the spread of Russian propaganda in Moldova.
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