, January 29, 2025

A Mountain to Climb: Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus and EU Policy Options

AP/Zurab Tsertsvadze/Scanpix
Protestors hold anti-Russian and anti-Putin posters as they gather outside the parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia.
Protestors hold anti-Russian and anti-Putin posters as they gather outside the parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh have triggered significant geopolitical shifts and resulted in varied manifestations of Russian influence across the South Caucasus, a region that Moscow has traditionally regarded as its “sphere of influence.”

This report examines the implications of these events for Russia’s geopolitical position in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It analyses Russia’s opportunities and constraints across military, political, economic, cultural, and other domains. Russia’s influence is interpreted broadly, encompassing:

  • Bogus Mediation and Military Deployment: Moscow exploits regional conflicts—such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia disputes—to position itself as an indispensable mediator while consolidating its military and political foothold.
  • Non-Military Coercive Levers: Russia leverages asymmetrical trade dependencies, energy resources, media influence, cultural ties, diasporas (both Russian and target nations’), and intelligence connections to coerce target governments.
  • Authoritarian Illiberal Alignment: Moscow supports regional autocrats in resisting democratisation (what they refer to as “colour revolutions”), enacting restrictive legislation modelled after that of Russia, such as foreign agent laws, and promoting “traditional values.”

In Georgia, Russia’s indirect influence through authoritarian illiberal alignment has intensified under Ivanishvili’s regime. Armenia has begun to tacitly reduce Russia’s influence in sensitive areas such as intelligence, whereas systemic military and economic dependence persists. Azerbaijan has aligned more closely with Moscow in political-military spheres, although this does not necessarily translate into greater Russian leverage over Baku. The continuation of these trends, particularly for the landlocked and resource-poor Armenia, hinges on the outcomes of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations.

This report recommends a multifaceted approach to strengthening resilience against Russia’s malicious influence while promoting democratic development in the region:

  • Block Russia’s “Bogus Mediation”: Prevent Russia from exploiting regional conflicts to entrench its geopolitical influence under the guise of mediation and peacekeeping. The deployment of the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia is a timely and significant step.
  • Counter “Traditional Values” Narratives: Challenge Russia’s promotion of anti-western “traditional values” narratives by showcasing the compatibility of the EU integration with preserving local traditions and cultures.
  • Diversify Regional Trade Routes: Support initiatives such as Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” to revive traditional trade routes and reduce dependence on Russia.
  • Provide Shelter and Support for Civil Society: Offer robust backing for civil society activities that build resilience against Russian influence and promote trust-building in the region.

Download and read: Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus and EU Policy Options (PDF)