Intelligence & Counter-intelligence Archives - ICDS

Intelligence & Counter-intelligence

A Mountain to Climb: Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus and EU Policy Options

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh have triggered significant geopolitical shifts and resulted in varied manifestations of Russian influence across the South Caucasus, a region that Moscow has traditionally regarded as its “sphere of influence.”

Commentary

A Failure of Personalised Services: Prioritising Regime Security over Public Safety

Despite its vigilant security apparatus with extensive surveillance networks, Russia was unable to prevent the terrorist attack on the concert hall close to its capital. The question is why it failed. Why is the Federal Security Service (FSB), tasked with combating terrorism, now downplaying the involvement of the Islamic State? What effect will this tragedy have on Putin’s regime? To address these questions, it is essential to understand Russia’s distinctive approach to counterterrorism.

Featured, Publications

A Forbidden Zone of “No Limits” Friendship: Possibilities and Constraints in Sino-Russia Intelligence Cooperation

The history of Sino-Russian relations of the past century is that of mutual distrust, suspicion, and deception.

Publications

Putin’s Counterintelligence State

It is far from inevitable that the looming historical defeat of the Russian armed forces in their full-blown invasion of Ukraine will shutter the core of the counterintelligence state. On the contrary, the growing militarisation and securitisation of Russian society will most likely bring the Federal Security Service (FSB), the regime’s ‘sword and shield,’ to the forefront as a primary instrument of maintaining subservience and order.

People board the Russian special government plane at the Vaclav Havel Airport in Prague, Czech Republic, 19 April 2021. According to the findings of the Czech security forces, there is reasonable suspicion that members of the Russian secret service GRU were involved in the explosion of the ammunition complex in Vrbetice in 2014. Foreign Minister Jan Hamacek expelled all diplomats who were identified as members of the Russian secret services GRU and SVR, some 18 people.

Commentary

The Actions of the Russian Intelligence Must Be Countered in Public

One cannot ignore the misfortune of others in counterintelligence—international cooperation is necessary. Ignoring unacceptable actions that occur elsewhere or failing to discuss them at home means more victims in the future.

Publications

Russia’s Espionage in Estonia: A Quantitative Analysis of Convictions

The activities of Russia’s Intelligence Services have recently received a lot of media attention.

Commentary

Russia Continues to Test Western Resolve – Spetsnaz Units Operating in Norwegian Territory

On 27 September 2019, the well-informed Norwegian security and defence portal Aldrimer.no reported that Russian Spetsnaz units were recently found operating inside Norwegian territory. More specifically, Russian forces were discovered both on Svalbard, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, and on mainland Norway.