The news that the US Marine Corps is ending continuous troop rotations to Norway and effectively withdrawing 700 troops should be seen in conjunction with the more significant reduction in Germany (11 900) announced only a week earlier. Both weaken European security and the credibility of the United States.
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The Pentagon has released some details of its plan to withdraw forces from Germany. The headline figure is now 11 900 troops (coyly described by the Pentagon as “more than 11 000”) compared to the total of roughly 9 500 discussed when the plan was first announced in June. Of these, around 5 600 will be redeployed In Europe, mostly to Belgium and Italy, and around 6 400 returned to the US.
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Failure to act on Russia paying for killings in Afghanistan discredits the United States and gives Moscow maximum value from its campaign.
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The key question of this analysis is whether EU and/or NATO allies, including Estonia, would be willing and able to continue to support international efforts in Sahel (including military operations and missions – MINUSMA, EUTM and Barkhane), in particular following the Covid-19 pandemic. It is addressed to civilian and military decision makers and experts, especially in the countries that contribute to international military operations and missions in the Sahel.
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NATO leaders have invited Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to present proposals at their next Summit for measures to reinforce Alliance unity, increase political consultation and coordination between Allies, and strengthen NATO’s political role.
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European Strategic Autonomy (ESA) is currently the subject of some debate and controversy. While this issue has been on the table since at least the 1990s, it was reinvigorated by the publication of the EU Global Strategy in 2016, itself a response to fundamental developments in European security.
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ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu and Non-Resident Fellow Maxime Lebrun made a thorough analysis of the defence cooperation and partnership between Estonia and France.
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Estonia’s role in the world is not only related to our geographical location, instead, our future is increasingly shaped by global developments. Who will become a global superpower? What will be the position of Europe in the new world order – and Estonia’s place in that Europe? How should we face the new threats surrounding us? Is NATO the only answer?
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As part of its renewed focus on collective defence and deterrence, NATO is re-engaging with the maritime domain and navies are seeing greater levels of interest and investment. The states that surround the Baltic Sea have also begun to respond to new and rediscovered challenges to their maritime security, but more could be done individually and collectively.
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NATO battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have been a success, according to ICDS research fellows Kalev Stoicescu and Pauli Järvenpää, presenting their recent report, “Contemporary Deterrence: Insights and Lessons from Enhanced Forward Presence”, to a full house on 1 February. “They are fully integrated into the land forces brigades and contribute to the self-defence capabilities of their host nations, the chain of command is clear and they are providing a deterrent presence.”
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