Learning from Russian incursions, and its assertive foreign policy that has seen limited resistance, might encourage China to achieve national rejuvenation before the 2049 deadline by giving up the idea of peaceful unification of Taiwan with China.
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Promotion of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will serve to connect Europe and Asia. ‘Sincere powers’ should proactively interact with each other and seek to convince the major powers such as China to restrain their behaviour and adhere to the international norms and rules.
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This analysis examines aspects of the Russian-Chinese defence relationship: its political motivations, trade between the two counties, collaboration in research and procurement, and military-military cooperation including exercises.
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Occasionally, suggestions are aired about the potential participation of partner nations in NATO activities that are directly related to the Alliance’s core task of collective defence.
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On 26 September, the five-day strategic exercise Kavkaz-2020, on the Kapustin Yar testing range in the Astrakhan Region, ended, resulting in the defeat of a mock enemy by a coalition made up of forces from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, China, Myanmar and Pakistan. Bringing together some 80,000 troops (according to official Russian information) from all contributing nations, the exercise was the largest training event carried out by Russia in 2020, involving 250 battle tanks, 450 armoured vehicles and 200 artillery pieces.
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The news that the US Marine Corps is ending continuous troop rotations to Norway and effectively withdrawing 700 troops should be seen in conjunction with the more significant reduction in Germany (11 900) announced only a week earlier. Both weaken European security and the credibility of the United States.
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The Pentagon has released some details of its plan to withdraw forces from Germany. The headline figure is now 11 900 troops (coyly described by the Pentagon as “more than 11 000”) compared to the total of roughly 9 500 discussed when the plan was first announced in June. Of these, around 5 600 will be redeployed In Europe, mostly to Belgium and Italy, and around 6 400 returned to the US.
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Failure to act on Russia paying for killings in Afghanistan discredits the United States and gives Moscow maximum value from its campaign.
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The key question of this analysis is whether EU and/or NATO allies, including Estonia, would be willing and able to continue to support international efforts in Sahel (including military operations and missions – MINUSMA, EUTM and Barkhane), in particular following the Covid-19 pandemic. It is addressed to civilian and military decision makers and experts, especially in the countries that contribute to international military operations and missions in the Sahel.
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NATO leaders have invited Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to present proposals at their next Summit for measures to reinforce Alliance unity, increase political consultation and coordination between Allies, and strengthen NATO’s political role.
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