The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.
Read more
The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.
Read more
The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
Read more
Hot information war, creeping escalation and other warnings and developments indicate that Russia is moving towards another attack on Ukraine. Will it be annexation of Donbas, a launch of full-scale military operations or insertion of Russian ‘peacekeepers’?
Read more
In the occupied Crimea, promoting militarism among the youth of the Crimea is a consistent, large-scale, purposeful process, aimed at suppressing individuality and raising obedient and motivated soldiers for the Russian armed forces. The militarisation starts in the kindergartens or even at birth.
Read more
Determined to ensure that in retreat, he imposes the maximum pain on others, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin is making the most of the increasingly unforgiving constraints of his environment.
Read more
The aims of this report are to explain Ukraine’s consolidation, resilience and determination to make its own decisions despite great asymmetries of power and Russia’s exploitation of its vulnerabilities and divisions; to describe why President Volodymyr Zelensky represents an opportunity as well as a challenge to Russia; and to set out necessary and realistic goals for the West.
Read more
Five months before the start of the Russia-Georgia War, I wrote a paper entitled, ‘Security in the Black Sea: Back to Realpolitik?’ Six years and two months after the annexation of Crimea, I pose a different question: Realpolitik or a new unipolarity? I do so for three reasons.
Read more
Six years after Russia annexed Crimea, a number of articulate and influential people in the West have become firmly convinced that a way out of the impasse must be found.
Read more
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s dream ended on 4 March. On that date he dismissed ten of the most reformist ministers of his still newly formed government.
Read more