The announcement by Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergey Shoygu, on 22 April that Russia would be withdrawing the forces it had assembled for the ‘snap exercises’ launched on 7 April has been met by as much confusion as relief. In the time that has passed since that announcement, statements by the Biden administration and the proposed Biden-Putin summit have increased confusion rather than dispelled it.
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The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.
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The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
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The attention being paid to the geopolitical implications of the situation developing on the Russia-Ukraine border should not overshadow the need to also respond to Russia’s day-to-day manipulation of Ukrainian society, especially in the regions located near occupied Crimea and the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
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In late 2020, Belarus inaugurated the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP). This facility – funded by the Russian government and built by the Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom – is one that Lithuania considers a threat to its national security. The project has already been causing frictions in the Baltic region that are yet to be resolved; the situation is emblematic of why and how Moscow is advancing its interests by exploiting the nuclear energy aspirations of various countries in Europe.
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This report revisits the spring 2007 crisis in Estonia, centred on the World War II memorial known as the Bronze Soldier statue. The crisis is well-known both in Estonia and abroad. It was one of the first wake-up calls to the cooling of relations between Russia and the West. It also involved the first use of wide-ranging cyber-attacks against a state.
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Why should the West also go on the offensive against the Kremlin to counter disinformation? Because The Kremlin, beyond any doubt, will continue to spread and accelerate its hostile influence activities against Western democracies. The Western societies have nothing to lose, but rather can benefit, by moving the front line from their information space into Russia’s.
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Five months before the start of the Russia-Georgia War, I wrote a paper entitled, ‘Security in the Black Sea: Back to Realpolitik?’ Six years and two months after the annexation of Crimea, I pose a different question: Realpolitik or a new unipolarity? I do so for three reasons.
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ICDS Chief Executive and Programme Director “Resilient Ukraine” Dmitri Teperik participated in the international roundtable entitled “Russia’s interference in electoral processes: threat and response”, organized by the Committee of Voters of Ukraine in Kyiv on 17 February 2020.
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“The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”
Albert Einstein
