Hostile Influence Strategies & Operations Archives - ICDS

Responding to a Dictator’s Stunts: A No-Thrill Flight Without a Destination?

It is quite extraordinary to see a state being rebuffed by Hamas, berated by the Ryanair CEO, admired by a boss of a Russian state propaganda outlet and prompting an immediate response from the EU that goes beyond “deep concern”—all within 36 hours of a major civil aviation incident. Whatever the reaction, we must give it to them: the regime in Minsk played by the “book of rogues” as a deserving and almost exemplary disciple of its big brother in Moscow. Can it be stopped from attempting similar stunts in the future? Probably not, so we will have to be prepared.

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Commentary

Russia’s Policy Designs in the Post-Soviet Space: Coercing into “Cooperation”

Russia has built and applied a conflict-resolution model in post-Soviet conflicts that is both robust and effective, given the Kremlin’s goals. If any improvement is desired, the EU and its Western partners should stop legitimising this model and instead switch to policies that make this Russian model costly to sustain.

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Russian forces landing a shore during a military drill along the Opuk training ground not far from the town of Kerch, on the Kerch Peninsula in the east of the occupied Crimea. The announcement by Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergey Shoygu, on 22 April that Russia would be withdrawing the forces it had assembled for the ‘snap exercises’ launched on 7 April has been met by as much confusion as relief.

Commentary

Ukraine: A Crisis Recedes, a Fog of Ambiguity Descends

The announcement by Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergey Shoygu, on 22 April that Russia would be withdrawing the forces it had assembled for the ‘snap exercises’ launched on 7 April has been met by as much confusion as relief. In the time that has passed since that announcement, statements by the Biden administration and the proposed Biden-Putin summit have increased confusion rather than dispelled it.

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Commentary

Russia Continues to Expand Its Influence in the Black Sea and the Balkans

The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.

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Commentary

Can Solidary Support for Ukraine Serve as a Deterrent Factor for the Kremlin?

The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.

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Commentary

Another Provocative Test of Ukraine’s Societal Resilience

The attention being paid to the geopolitical implications of the situation developing on the Russia-Ukraine border should not overshadow the need to also respond to Russia’s day-to-day manipulation of Ukrainian society, especially in the regions located near occupied Crimea and the frontline in eastern Ukraine.

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Publications

Hybrid Atoms: Rosatom in Europe and Nuclear Energy in Belarus

In late 2020, Belarus inaugurated the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP). This facility – funded by the Russian government and built by the Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom – is one that Lithuania considers a threat to its national security. The project has already been causing frictions in the Baltic region that are yet to be resolved; the situation is emblematic of why and how Moscow is advancing its interests by exploiting the nuclear energy aspirations of various countries in Europe.

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Publications

The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict

This report revisits the spring 2007 crisis in Estonia, centred on the World War II memorial known as the Bronze Soldier statue. The crisis is well-known both in Estonia and abroad. It was one of the first wake-up calls to the cooling of relations between Russia and the West. It also involved the first use of wide-ranging cyber-attacks against a state.

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Commentary

Does the West Dare to Open the Eastern Front of Information War?

Why should the West also go on the offensive against the Kremlin to counter disinformation? Because The Kremlin, beyond any doubt, will continue to spread and accelerate its hostile influence activities against Western democracies. The Western societies have nothing to lose, but rather can benefit, by moving the front line from their information space into Russia’s.

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Commentary

Security in the Black Sea Region: Realpolitik or a New Unipolarity?

Five months before the start of the Russia-Georgia War, I wrote a paper entitled, ‘Security in the Black Sea: Back to Realpolitik?’ Six years and two months after the annexation of Crimea, I pose a different question: Realpolitik or a new unipolarity? I do so for three reasons.

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