EU

Hague Summit Series: The EU-NATO Relationship

The return of great power competition and the weakening of the international order have produced significant threats to Europe’s security. Most urgently, Russia’s aggression has brought large-scale war to Ukraine and Russia into a hybrid confrontation with Ukraine’s western allies. At the same time, the US seems ready to reduce its commitment to Europe’s security and even to be hostile towards its long-standing partners and the values they defend.[1] This deteriorating geopolitical situation should encourage greater synergies between NATO and the EU, the two main organisations that deal with security and defence in Europe.

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EU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030

The Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. [1] This document is part of a dynamic that has been at work since the outburst of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, namely the greater priority given to defence within the EU.

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More Than a Systemic Rival: China as a Security Challenge for the EU

The EU’s ties with China rank just behind its transatlantic ones in significance. With China being a major trading partner, the focus has long been on economic opportunities. In recent years, there has been a shift in how the EU frames its relationship with China. Yet, despite increasing emphasis on systemic rivalry and economic security, security risks remain underrepresented in EU China policy.

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EU Defence Series: Strengthening the Industry

With the March 2022 Strategic Compass, the EU “set out a common strategic vision and concrete objectives for strengthening the EU’s security and defence policy by 2030.” [1] The Compass noted the deterioration in the strategic environment as a result of the return of war to Europe, increased competition between powers, the complexity of threats to the continent’s security, and the undermining of the principles of the international order. In defence, the member states (MS) recognised the need to invest “more and better in innovative capabilities and technologies, fill strategic gaps, and reduce technological and industrial dependencies.” [2] This brief considers the EU’s progress in the defence industrial domain.

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The EU’s Dilemmas in the Black Sea Region: Security and Enlargement

The Black Sea region has gained renewed strategic importance for the European Union following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As an area of considerable economic and geopolitical significance, as well as a focal point for potential future EU enlargement, its stability is now an urgent concern for European policymakers. Russia’s sustained efforts to undermine security in the Black Sea necessitate a coherent EU vision, moving beyond the fragmented scope of earlier initiatives such as the Black Sea Synergy and aspects of the Eastern Partnership.

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EU Defence Series: PESCO Must Step Up

Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), established by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, was intended to create a framework for the most willing and able Member States (MS) to cooperate on defence within the EU. It was activated by 23 of them in 2017. Today, all MS except Malta participate. This brief examines PESCO’s contribution to the EU’s growing defence ambitions and sets out the challenges ahead.

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The Role of Russia In the Political Transition of the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood

The Russian political establishment has always been convinced that Russia’s national interests as a “great power” extend beyond its borders and that the post-Soviet space is a territory of Russia’s exclusive geopolitical domination. Моscow, therefore, immediately characterized the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative as a project aimed to project the EU’s soft power onto its neighbouring countries and reduce their dependence on Russian influence.

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Narratives of External Norm Contenders Across the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood

The paper focuses on narratives of contested democracy by third-country actors — notably Russia and China — in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. It identifies four dominant narratives across the region that originate from Russia — ‘decadent and declining West’, ‘historical unity with Russia’, ‘Russia provides security, the West stokes conflict’, and ‘Western-imposed democracy’ — and one broad narrative promoted by China, summed up as ‘China as a positive alternative’. It explores similarities and differences between the six country cases as well as between the narratives advanced by Russia and China. Finally, the paper also seeks to assess the receptiveness of local audiences to the narratives promoted by the two authoritarian powers and their relevance from the viewpoint of democratisation and EU democracy support.

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New Russian Immigration to the EU: The Case of the Baltic States, Finland, Germany & Poland

The political atmosphere in Russia, as well as the September 2022 mobilisation call for military service, made thousands of Russians leave their home country. Although a vast majority of them have settled in post-Soviet countries, a noticeable portion has also taken up residence in EU countries. A recent couple of years have seen significant expert interest in new Russian immigration, so there is no shortage of publications on the phenomenon. However, many of these analyses suffer from substantial flaws.

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