The Russian political establishment has always been convinced that Russia’s national interests as a “great power” extend beyond its borders and that the post-Soviet space is a territory of Russia’s exclusive geopolitical domination. Моscow, therefore, immediately characterized the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative as a project aimed to project the EU’s soft power onto its neighbouring countries and reduce their dependence on Russian influence.
The central aim of Russia’s strategy concerning the EU’s eastern neighbourhood (EN) countries is the erosion of their sovereignty and the attainment of de facto control over decision-making in their external and internal affairs. Moreover, the Kremlin is clearly focused on undermining the attractive image of the EU – and the West as a whole – among the populations of the EN countries. To accomplish its goals, the Kremlin most often resort to information warfare (or soft influence through the Russian media presence in the EN countries and the promotion of narratives through institutions such as Rossotrudnichestvo and the Russkiy Mir Foundation), economic blackmail, and hard power. In pursuit of its foreign policy objectives, Russia employs an extensive array of instruments, weaponising virtually all forms of interaction with neighbouring countries. The Kremlin relies on instruments of negative motivation, such as fostering separatism, exploiting hard security vulnerabilities, employing economic coercion, and engaging in nuclear sabre-rattling.
A thorough examination, conducted in the framework of this policy paper, suggests that the Kremlin’s overarching strategy and tactical manoeuvres are unlikely to undergo substantial alterations, particularly in the medium term, as they are deeply rooted in the peculiarities of the institutional design of Russian society, politics, and economy. Drawing from the analysis and with the goal of effectively mitigating Russia’s influence in the EN space, this policy paper recommends promoting Europe as a security provider; advancing new strategic messaging; and adopting the principles of no grey zones in Europe and zero tolerance towards Russian propaganda. In certain parts, this research extends beyond REDEMOS’ chronological scope to highlight and emphasize the continuity of Russia’s foreign policy towards its neighbours since the collapse of the USSR.
Download and read: The Role of Russia In the Political Transition of the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood (PDF)
The paper was written in the framework of the Horizon Europe project REDEMOS – TOWARDS A SUSTAINED DEMOS IN THE EU’S EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD