This report examines Russia’s preparations for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: domestically, in Ukraine itself, in the global information domain, and in building its relationship with China.
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When Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border on 24 February and reports surfaced of a parallel attack against the satellite provider Viasat, an ominous signal was given that the war had also escalated in cyberspace.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been game-changing for Europe’s security, challenging the long-held beliefs and assumptions of many Western nations and prompting dramatic shifts in policy, for example, in Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The war’s conduct has also produced significant surprises, not least the unexpectedly poor performance of Russia’s supposedly reformed military.
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The ninth Brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns Russia’s propaganda war.
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The fifth brief of the series looks at the early air war. Russia’s failure to conduct a devastating air offensive and secure air superiority, despite having all the advantages on paper at the start of its war in Ukraine, was a great surprise to observers and had major strategic impact.
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Russia has successfully managed to exploit anti-colonial sentiment, regional instability and general disappointment in the west to create new partnerships in Africa.
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The second brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns the war in cyberspace.
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This paper offers its readers a closer look at one particular aspect of global information confrontation – the variable vulnerability of different demographic groups to digital disinformation. In particular, it looks into the online behaviour of middle-aged women (those aged between 45 and 65 years), who are frequent recipients of disinformation messages.
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As the fog of war is always thick with lies and half-truths, it is useful not just for high-ranking decision-makers but also for regular citizens to maintain their practical sense of resilience against harmful disinformation. We must remain pragmatically calm in our everyday behaviour and see problems not just in terms of their immediate impact but also in relation to longer time frames and the variability of predictable consequences.
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Russia’s approach toward Ukraine does not seem to be the result of well-considered foreign policy calculations, rather it represents constant improvisation, as evidenced by numerous inconsistencies in the Kremlin’s actions.
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