Defence Policy & Strategy

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American Leadership in NATO: A Rocky Return but a Firm Future

Although America is ‘back’ at NATO, Europe remains unsettled about the credibility and longevity of US commitments to the alliance. A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the alliance’s next Strategic Concept and how the two sides will craft a common agenda to endure the coming decade. The Biden administration, despite a few recent transatlantic missteps, recognises the gravity of this moment and has come prepared with a focused set of priorities for NATO’s future.

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NATO, Russia, and the Security Dynamics in the Black Sea

In the last decade, the Black Sea has become a de facto arena for competing and objectively irreconcilable strategic interests, where an opportunistic Russia has unilaterally changed the security architecture and dynamics in the region via not only conventional military means, but also highly sophisticated and hybrid means that have allowed Moscow plausible deniability.

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A Defence of Defence. NATO’s Response to Low-Grade Cyber-Attacks

Despite a barrage of cyber-attacks from state and non-state actors, NATO’s recent communiqué reaffirmed a defensive commitment to cybersecurity without proposing new offensive responses. While some may characterize this response as ineffective, pursuing diplomatic and economic retaliation to low-grade cyber threats offers the best outcome for the Alliance.

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Growing Military Activity in the Arctic and Baltic Regions

The last six months have offered numerous examples indicating that the level of military activity in the Arctic and Baltic regions continues to increase slowly but steadily. Russian and Western forces have in different ways increased their presence in these contested regions and nations are strengthening relevant military capabilities.

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