France’s independent nuclear deterrence has been the main pillar of its defence strategy for sixty years. The French nuclear policy, as well as its European and allied dimensions, however, tends to be misunderstood abroad, including by those who rely on French military involvement in the pursuit of their national security goals.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been game-changing for Europe’s security, challenging the long-held beliefs and assumptions of many Western nations and prompting dramatic shifts in policy, for example, in Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The war’s conduct has also produced significant surprises, not least the unexpectedly poor performance of Russia’s supposedly reformed military.
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The tenth Brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns the Western military assistance to Ukraine.
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The seventh brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns Russia’s military and political preparations for attacking Ukraine through the prism of indicators of possible intent to conduct large-scale combat operations.
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The first brief in a new series “Russia’s War in Ukraine” discusses Russia’s war aims. These are not limited to the destruction of Ukraine’s statehood, or even of the Ukrainian nation, its culture and language, but include altering Europe’s security architecture by undermining NATO and the European Union.
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Ukraine has fought heroically against Russian aggression since 2014, with the Ukrainian territorial defence forces playing a key role. The current conflagration in 2022 shows the effectiveness of the territorial defence forces, and a few lessons have been learned.
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The EU Strategic Compass provides an opportunity to pre-empt the logjams that have held EU foreign policy back for too long. But one should never underestimate the debilitating capacity of the EU to divide itself. However, the EU’s firm response to Russia’s full-blown war in Ukraine is a welcome and much needed change from such practices.
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On 18 February, I posted a commentary intended to wrap up a series of ICDS briefs on various aspects of Germany’s role in the security of the Baltic region. Its title was “The Baltic States Would Wish Germany’s New Government to Step Up in Defence and Step Back from Russia”. This weekend, Chancellor Scholz has done just that.
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As a new government takes power under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, it is opportune to ask what the Baltic states want from Germany in terms of their security, and what might they realistically expect?
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There is broad agreement that the European states should do more for their own security and defence, but little consensus on how to achieve this goal, or on what role strategic autonomy may have in delivering it. In the EU, perhaps the most likely framework for creating the necessary capacity, the Member States have signed up to a higher level of military ambition, but their employment of military force through the Common Security and Defence Policy has remained modest.
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