Between February and July 2024, twenty-two countries entered into bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. This paper provides a comparative analysis of these agreements, aiming to identify and explain key similarities and differences in them, thereby offering a clearer understanding of their content and potential implications.
The bilateral agreements are patently based on the 2023 G7 Joint Declaration, which, in turn, partially realises the conceptual framework proposed by the Kyiv Security Compact (KSC) in 2022. A clear fil rouge exists between them all. While the KSC outlines the key rationale, scope, and potential shape of security commitments to Ukraine, the G7 Declaration describes more concretely how such commitments are structured and developed. The G7 Joint Declaration serves as the political and programmatic foundation for the subsequent bilateral security agreements. Building upon it, each bilateral treaty spells out how it intends to further the former’s original content. The 2024 bilateral security agreements were designed precisely to ensure a high degree of uniformity between them so that each guarantor state would assume similar roles and responsibilities and offer comparable security commitments to Ukraine outside of the NATO framework.
Subtle yet significant differences exist in areas such as military and non-military support to Ukraine, Russia’s accountability, compensation mechanisms, and Ukraine’s potential NATO accession. They are, however, either minimal or do not alter the fundamental aim of establishing a cohesive coalition of states capable of offering comparable security commitments. These differences can largely be attributed to the specific national interests and capabilities of each state, their political will, and temporal factors. Had each state independently provided security assurances to Ukraine without coordination and a shared basis that ensured structural, terminological, and conceptual coherence, the outcome would likely have been more confounded and less impactful.
The 2024 bilateral security agreements hold significant importance for the future of Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression, post-war reconstruction and recovery, and its political-military alignment with the Euro-Atlantic community. However, such agreements present a number of limitations. Ultimately, the security commitment outlined in these agreements is not commensurate with the level of security safety that Kyiv would receive upon NATO accession.
Despite patent limitations, the agreements contribute to providing Ukraine with significant commitments that, if effectively implemented, could strengthen its security and self-defence capabilities, support its domestic reforms, and advance its interoperability with NATO. However, all this – again – largely hinges on the political determination of the Euro-Atlantic community to undertake such long-term efforts. And it remains uncertain to what extent the political will to act in such a unified manner currently exists.
Download and read: Shared Goals, Different Paths, and a Complex Outcome: A Deep Dive into Ukraine’s 2024 Bilateral Security Agreements (PDF)