While Baltic security thinking has long been dominated by assessments of the risk of Russian military aggression in Europe, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was still a shock in its brutality and scale. It has led the three Baltic states to further increase defence spending and to accelerate the building of national defence capabilities.
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Robotic platforms, artificial intelligence, and weapons with autonomous functions have become central to defence innovation. Major powers rely on emerging technologies to achieve and maintain strategic advantages over their potential adversaries. Yet more developed AI-based solutions produce not only more sophisticated technologies but also a not-less-sophisticated set of problems.
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With Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, major conventional war returned to Europe in a manner unseen since the two world wars and the end of the Cold War—three occasions during the 20th century when the borders, norms, institutions, and balance of power ordering interstate relations on the continent and beyond experienced an unparalleled upheaval.
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It is that time of the year again. Congress is busy with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Analysts write scathing critiques of the budget. Generals roam Capitol Hill, and defense lobbyists lurk in corners begging for a few more dollars.
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The last six months have offered numerous examples indicating that the level of military activity in the Arctic and Baltic regions continues to increase slowly but steadily. Russian and Western forces have in different ways increased their presence in these contested regions and nations are strengthening relevant military capabilities.
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How will the developments outlined in the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, presented on 16 March 2021, and the Defence Command Paper published on 22 March affect the UK’s military presence and level of activity in the north-eastern corner of Europe and specifically in Estonia?
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Russia’s military exercises, operations and defence industry exhibitions are showcasing an increasing number of unmanned aerial, land and maritime platforms. Some examples are dismissed by Western observers as evident failures and signs of unrealistic ambitions, even as a sort of “Potemkin village” display. However, there is no denying the fact that Russia’s defence leadership, military theorists and military practitioners are showing keen interest in robotic military applications featuring varying degrees of autonomy in performing their tasks.
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The forces and capabilities that will be available for NATO operations in 2030 have, to a great extent, already been decided through the NATO Defence Planning Process. It is now up to individual Allies to deliver on their commitments.
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On 30 September, the Estonian Government submitted its draft 2021 state budget to the Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu). For once, the allocation for national defence was the result of a heated political row between coalition partners.
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President Donald Trump ordered preparations for reducing considerably US troops numbers in Germany. A formal decision has not been made yet, and Trump may ultimately decline to sign it due to mounting political pressure, including in the Republican Party, but political damage to NATO’s credibility has been done. The whole construction of collective defence would be significantly weakened because of less rapid reinforcement capability from Germany to NATO’s eastern flank.
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