Elements of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) spent much of November 2024 in Latvia, taking part in a series of exercises known as Joint Protector 24.[1] Leaders of the JEF countries—Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the UK will then meet in Tallinn on 16-17 December to discuss further cooperation in the framework.[2] What is the JEF, and what does it offer the Baltic region?
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The political atmosphere in Russia, as well as the September 2022 mobilisation call for military service, made thousands of Russians leave their home country. Although a vast majority of them have settled in post-Soviet countries, a noticeable portion has also taken up residence in EU countries. A recent couple of years have seen significant expert interest in new Russian immigration, so there is no shortage of publications on the phenomenon. However, many of these analyses suffer from substantial flaws.
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Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, several European states re-introduced conscription while others took steps to increase the effectiveness of existing conscription arrangements. Compulsory military service, often regarded as an anachronism in the post-Cold War period, has thus re-emerged as a means to ensure that relatively large wartime force structures can be generated at low cost and, in some cases, to provide personnel to standing units.
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Sweden’s flag was raised at NATO headquarters at midday on 11 March 2024, ceremonially marking one of the most surprising outcomes of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In the face of Russia’s aggression and the risks it presented to their own security, Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023, and Sweden had abandoned decades-long policies of neutrality and non-alignment to become the Alliance’s 31st and 32nd member states. Our report examines the consequences of these changes, largely from the perspective of the defence of the Baltic states.
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Russia’s war against Ukraine has produced multiple shifts in the geopolitical landscape of Europe. Various EU member states and EU institutions broke through entire decades of dogmatic principles and established practices in security and defence policies to respond to Russia’s aggression and protect the continent. The energy domain is at the forefront of this confrontation, as Russia used its dominant market position in European energy supply in the run-up to – as well as during – the war to weaken Europe’s responses, divide the EU, and deter it from increasing its support to Ukraine.
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When Russia launched its open and brutal attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Finland immediately realized that the security environment had fundamentally changed overnight.
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In the next few months Finland and Sweden will likely become the 31st and 32nd members of NATO. What kind of Allies will they be, and what will this mean for the security of the Nordic-Baltic region?
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Finland and Sweden do not have a fast track to join NATO. If they apply for membership, they must be able to show they can meet NATO’s political, military, legal, resource and security preconditions, or at least have a plan to address any obvious shortfalls.
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Occasionally, suggestions are aired about the potential participation of partner nations in NATO activities that are directly related to the Alliance’s core task of collective defence.
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In the Covid-19 crisis, the Finnish government took its decisions based on the national interest and considering the wellbeing of its citizens. This is how it would behave in possible future crises, which may be of a different nature. Estonia should avoid too high expectations of its northern neighbour.
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