Series: NATO’s Vilnius Summit
NATO’s heads of state and government meet this week for their second summit after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s war and its consequences will again dominate the agenda.
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NATO’s Eastern Flank
Turkey’s Future Role in NATO
This is the first research paper by the ICDS that is focused on Turkey, a capable and indispensable, but also a complex and difficult member of NATO.
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Zapad-2021—Logistics and Key Fighting Concepts
Between 10–16 September 2021, Russia and its ally Belarus conducted the active phase of the Zapad-2021 command-staff exercise. Zapad tests Russian warfighting capabilities in the Western operational direction and thus it has a strong anti-NATO character. This has always been the case.
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Between Bad, Worse, and Worst: Europe Faces Tough Tests This Winter
Europe is under growing pressure from the East. First, the dictator of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, after a test run of weaponised waves of migrants against the Lithuanian and Latvian borders over the summer, has now sent not just hundreds but thousands of migrants to breach the borders of the European Union. Kuźnica, on the Polish border, was only the first major attempt; many more are likely to follow to coerce the EU into accepting the regime in Minsk as legitimate and lifting the sanctions.
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Is Zapad 2021 Any Different from Zapad 2017?
It is still too early to make any conclusions about Russia’s large-scale strategic-operational exercise Zapad 2021, but it is possible to identify at least three developments that have taken place since the Zapad 2017 exercise.
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#NATO2030. Regional Cooperation for a Stronger NATO
The countries of central and eastern Europe have often worked together politically and militarily to advance their security interests vis-a-vis NATO. They have been most successful when they have had a clear goal, such as joining the Alliance in the late 1990s and early 2000s or ensuring that NATO would adopt robust enhancements to its deterrence posture following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
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#NATO2030. Credible Deterrence in the Baltic Region
After Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO put renewed focus onto its primary task of collective defence and deterrence. It has taken several important steps, but it would be a mistake to believe that NATO’s deterrence posture in the Baltic region is complete.
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Constructing Deterrence in the Baltic States
Both as intellectual concept and as actionable strategy, deterrence is complex and multifaceted. This is certainly so in the Baltic region, where no one action or policy alone can guarantee security.
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Initial Reflections on the Recommendations of the Participants of the Expert Dialogue on NATO-Russia Military Risk Reduction in Europe
Those who have read Clausewitz, not least of all the Russian military establishment, know that war is a tool of policy. Paraphrasing Clausewitz, Lenin stated that conflict and war are inseparable from the political conditions that engender them. The recommendations recently produced by a working group of experts from Russia, the United States and Europe depart from these insights.
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Is There a Serious Security Threat to NATO’s Eastern Flank Nations Until Joe Biden’s Inauguration?
There is almost no doubt that former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. has won the US presidential elections, although counting of votes has not yet finished in many states, and president Donald Trump continues to refuse to acknowledge defeat.
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