This is the first research paper by the ICDS that is focused on Turkey, a capable and indispensable, but also a complex and difficult member of NATO.
In Estonia, there is both interest and concern related to Turkey, as it is an important ally that could contribute more to deterrence and defence in NATO’s north-eastern flank, but its Western orientation is changing and its relations with Russia continue to strengthen.
Turkey’s role in the Alliance and relations with the US, European Allies, the EU, Russia and other actors changed gradually after the end of the Cold War, due to significant geopolitical developments, including the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab uprisings and the wars in Syria and Libya, and the fight against ISIS. Turkey’s domestic political scene, and consequently its foreign and security policy altered further, dramatically, after the attempted coup in July 2016.
The purpose of this policy paper is to examine the current dynamics and near future perspectives of Turkey’s domestic situation and role in NATO, its only solid institutional link with the West, as well as relations with Allies and, on the other hand, Russia. It is directed foremost to the public and decision makers in the West, but also in Turkey, as an independent Estonian expert opinion.
The authors acknowledge the limitations of this paper based on the observation that Turkey’s defence and foreign policies are devised in small, closed circles of the governing elite and, therefore, the process is not fully transparent.
Download and read: Turkey’s Future Role in NATO (PDF)