NATO in Search of Unity in Ankara

Every NATO summit aims to convey the message of transatlantic unity. In Ankara, this will be more critical than ever. Leaders need to maintain unity by shifting to a more European Alliance, while keeping America engaged.

Unity is NATO’s centre of gravity. It underpins both deterrence and defence. Facing an aggressive Russia, the challenge from China, and turmoil in the Middle East, Europe and North America must continue to stand together to keep our people safe.

Unity is NATO’s centre of gravity.

As NATO Spokesperson, I briefed the North Atlantic Council before every summit on how we should communicate unity. I would remind ambassadors that unity was the job of each Allied capital; that it had to be conveyed in deeds, not just words; and that we should expect the unexpected to overshadow our plans. Those reminders remain valid as NATO leaders prepare to meet in Ankara on 7–8 July.

Deep Divisions

NATO has overcome deep divisions before—from the Suez crisis in 1956, France’s withdrawal from the integrated military command in 1966, and the Iraq war in 2003. During his first term, President Donald Trump almost walked out of the 2018 Brussels summit to punish Allies for failing to invest enough in defence.

Last year in The Hague, NATO leaders agreed to spend 5% of their GDP on defence and defence-related expenditures by 2035. It was a significant step, designed not just to please Trump, but to strengthen Europe’s security.

Europe and North America must continue to stand together to keep our people safe.

Yet in recent months, tensions within NATO have reached a record high. Europeans have been rattled by Trump’s questioning of the value of the Alliance to the US, his desire to control Greenland, his tendency to do deals with Russia to the detriment of Ukraine, and his criticism of Allies for their reluctance to support the US–Israeli war against Iran. In turn, Europeans have hardened their tone and started searching for ways they can defend themselves with less America.

Not Whistling Past the Graveyard

Moving fast to limit the damage, Secretary General Mark Rutte went to Washington in April for a “frank and open” discussion in the Oval Office. He reminded Trump of the advantages of the Alliance, stressing that Europe wants to take on a larger role. “That’s good news,” Rutte said, “it’s a development from an unhealthy dependency to a transatlantic Alliance based on true partnership.” He also mentioned that many European nations had been helpful in the Middle East with basing, logistics, and overflights.

Speaking at the Reagan Institute, Rutte used a striking metaphor. The Alliance, he said, is not “whistling past the graveyard.” Allies recognise, Rutte said, that “we are in a period of profound change in the transatlantic Alliance.”

Burden-Shifting Summit

For many years, the US has pushed for fairer burden sharing within NATO. Now, the key phrase is “burden-shifting,” with Europeans aiming to take the lead in the conventional defence of the continent. Russia’s aggression and Washington’s unreliability indicate that the shift may need to take place sooner than many Europeans are prepared for. The Ankara summit will focus on three aspects that can speed it up: defence spending, defence industrial production, and support for Ukraine.

Russia’s aggression and Washington’s unreliability indicate that the shift may need to take place sooner than many Europeans are prepared for.

There is good news on all three, but progress remains uneven. European Allies and Canada have spent a record $574 bn in 2025, 20% more than in the previous year. The estimates for 2026 should be even higher, with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as Nordic Allies and Germany, leading the way. The summit should set what Rutte calls “a clear and credible path” towards the 5% objective, which includes 3.5% for defence and 1.5% for defence-related expenditure, such as resilience and military mobility. For the first time, there will be a report on where Allies stand on the 1.5% issue.

The summit will also focus on how cash can turn into capabilities faster and at greater scale. NATO aims to provide aggregated figures to industry for capabilities required to implement defence plans. There is a discussion about more closely involving small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as repurposing civil sectors, such as the automotive industry, for defence production. Closer cooperation with the EU, Ukraine, and Indo-Pacific partners such as Japan and South Korea, and the expanding defence sector in Turkey will be showcased at the NATO Industry Forum on the margins of the summit.

Two Wars

Finally, Secretary General Rutte is pushing to make support for Ukraine fairer and more sustainable. Over the last year, Europeans have stepped up military aid, overtaking the US. Through the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), NATO Allies and partners have provided over $4 bn to procure US equipment, including Patriot interceptors. But there is a clear imbalance, with Germany, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands bearing the brunt. Rutte’s proposal that Allies should allocate a fraction of their GDP to Ukraine has not met consensus, so there is a risk that Ukraine’s needs will not be fully met. Europeans do not produce enough, while the US is burning through its stockpiles in the Middle East.

Concerned about its own security, Turkey is trying to mediate in two wars in its neighbourhood: Russia’s war in Ukraine and the US’s war against Iran. NATO’s ballistic missile defence system has successfully intercepted four Iranian missiles heading to Turkey, but the longer the conflict lasts, the more it will overshadow the summit.

It would make sense for leaders to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz and to host a meeting of the coalition of the willing led by the UK and France, especially since NATO’s four Gulf partners—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—are likely to be invited to Ankara, along with Oman and Saudi Arabia. Together with the clear progress on defence investment and burden-shifting, that would show that US concerns are taken seriously, help maintain American engagement in Europe’s security, and preserve NATO unity.

This article was written for the Lennart Meri Conference special issue of ICDS Diplomaatia magazine. Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).