Security & Resilience Archives - ICDS

Resilient Ukraine – a Delicate Mosaic? Society, Media, Security, and Future Prospects

Since 2014, after the occupation of the Crimea and part of the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukraine has remained the object of complex operations of influence from Russia. Effective protection from such operations is possible only if the various components of national resilience are fully explored, from regional media development to the readiness and ability of citizens to resist operations of such influence.

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Tarajal_031 via CGT SOV del Sur de Madrid CGT on Flickr. Creative Commons license 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Publications

Pushed to the Limit? Italian and Spanish Lessons from the Migration Crises

Lithuania, Latvia and Poland are currently dealing with a migrant crisis triggered and fuelled by the regime in Belarus. They have no experience in managing such crises, and might find value in studying the approaches, solutions, and mistakes of EU peers such as Italy and Spain, countries that have often been on the frontline in dealing with illegal migration.

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Commentary

The Belarus Crisis Through the Eyes of Its Baltic and Nordic Neighbours

Thirty years ago, the collapse of the Soviet Union opened the door for three Baltic states to step on the pathway to independence, democracy, and prosperity. But the door did not open by itself.

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Commentary

Russia’s Policy Designs in the Post-Soviet Space: Coercing into “Cooperation”

Russia has built and applied a conflict-resolution model in post-Soviet conflicts that is both robust and effective, given the Kremlin’s goals. If any improvement is desired, the EU and its Western partners should stop legitimising this model and instead switch to policies that make this Russian model costly to sustain.

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Publications

So Far, Yet So Close: Japanese and Estonian Cybersecurity Policy Perspectives and Cooperation

Estonia and Japan are among the leaders in cyber diplomacy and cybersecurity on the global stage, Japan also being a key strategic partner for the EU and NATO. They have many similarities in their approaches to cybersecurity and state behaviour in cyberspace, which has established solid ground for closer bilateral ties. This report, authored by leading Estonian and Japanese researchers of cybersecurity policy, gives a valuable insight into the experiences and perspectives of these two countries, their success stories and challenges in building a secure cyberspace, as well as the potential for cooperation.

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Commentary

Russia Continues to Expand Its Influence in the Black Sea and the Balkans

The tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have somewhat eased. However, both experts and officials note that it’s too early to say that a new hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been avoided. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its presence in the Black Sea and is trying to influence the political processes in neighbouring states.

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People board the Russian special government plane at the Vaclav Havel Airport in Prague, Czech Republic, 19 April 2021. According to the findings of the Czech security forces, there is reasonable suspicion that members of the Russian secret service GRU were involved in the explosion of the ammunition complex in Vrbetice in 2014. Foreign Minister Jan Hamacek expelled all diplomats who were identified as members of the Russian secret services GRU and SVR, some 18 people.

Commentary

The Actions of the Russian Intelligence Must Be Countered in Public

One cannot ignore the misfortune of others in counterintelligence—international cooperation is necessary. Ignoring unacceptable actions that occur elsewhere or failing to discuss them at home means more victims in the future.

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Commentary

Some Initial Lessons Identified for the West from Russia’s Action against Ukraine

The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.

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Commentary

Another Provocative Test of Ukraine’s Societal Resilience

The attention being paid to the geopolitical implications of the situation developing on the Russia-Ukraine border should not overshadow the need to also respond to Russia’s day-to-day manipulation of Ukrainian society, especially in the regions located near occupied Crimea and the frontline in eastern Ukraine.

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COVID-19 vaccination on medical train in Russia's Irkutsk Region.

Commentary

Sputnik V is a Geopolitical Soft-power Weapon

The medical success of Sputnik V would—like any other coronavirus vaccine—doubtless benefit mankind, but its use as a geopolitical soft-power weapon would certainly further worsen the already critically bad relations between Russia and the West.

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