The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.
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The last six months have offered numerous examples indicating that the level of military activity in the Arctic and Baltic regions continues to increase slowly but steadily. Russian and Western forces have in different ways increased their presence in these contested regions and nations are strengthening relevant military capabilities.
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Vladimir Putin has been declared a world pariah. This pariah aims to “conquer Europe”, primarily by financial and economic means. But European leaders remain vague in their statements and actions against the Kremlin, while Europe’s businessmen continue to buy Russian raw materials and thereby finance anti-European propaganda. This vicious circle needs to end.
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Donald Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy stood in stark contrast to the long-standing broad commitments that have traditionally underpinned relations between the US and its allies. It is no surprise that Joe Biden’s victory was met with sighs of relief in many NATO capitals.
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The first fanfares of Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election and the proclamation of the rebirth of a great friendship were soon followed in Europe by more cautious assessments of the near future of US foreign and security policy. According to experts and observers, Biden must first and foremost address domestic challenges. ICDS Diplomaatia magazine asked Kurt Volker, Susan Glasser and Liisa Past to elaborate on what this actually means and how it will influence Biden’s choices in foreign and security policy.
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Less than a decade ago, the Arctic region was widely regarded as an extraordinary, peaceful region. Brought about by a combination of a harsh geography incentivising cooperation over conflict and by the commitment of the Arctic countries themselves, the region was hailed in many quarters as exceptional, a place where the traditional rules of power politics had been, if not dismantled, then at least reined in. This is no longer the case.
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As Joe Biden takes over the presidency of the U.S., he faces a daunting array of domestic and international economic challenges. His administration is likely to deal with domestic issues first, then restoring relations with allies in Europe and Asia, and finally with China.
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Some Allies, like some animals, are more equal than others. Although NATO formally makes decisions by consensus, with every Ally having the same standing, in practice its decisions may be disproportionately shaped by the views of its larger members, in particular the US.
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Since entering into force in 2011, the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) has helped to verifiably reduce deployed and non-deployed nuclear delivery vehicles and deployed nuclear warheads. The Treaty is due to expire in 2021, unless the parties agree to an extension – a process that has been initiated, but the outcome remains to be seen.
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Remarks at Conference on Biden and Europe, Co-Sponsored by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and the Wilson Center, 14 January 2021.
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