With Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, major conventional war returned to Europe in a manner unseen since the two world wars and the end of the Cold War—three occasions during the 20th century when the borders, norms, institutions, and balance of power ordering interstate relations on the continent and beyond experienced an unparalleled upheaval.
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In the same way that it is difficult to say whether a single event in the last few decades marks Russia’s decisive breaking away from democratic path of development, it is difficult to say the same about the events of the last decade in Georgia. Nevertheless, this breaking away has taken place, although Estonia, the European Union, the United States, all Georgia’s Western friends have made powerless attempts to keep Georgia on track.
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Global tensions between the United States and China peaked following the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2–3 August visit to Taiwan. People around the world held their breaths as speculations over a possible US – China war mounted. The visit concluded peacefully as Pelosi left Taiwan. High tensions remained.
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It is that time of the year again. Congress is busy with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Analysts write scathing critiques of the budget. Generals roam Capitol Hill, and defense lobbyists lurk in corners begging for a few more dollars.
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Russia is investing in the development of a variety of hypersonic delivery systems. These can travel to targets at five or more times the speed of sound, elude defences by evasive manoeuvring, and deliver munitions with great precision.
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Russia’s approach toward Ukraine does not seem to be the result of well-considered foreign policy calculations, rather it represents constant improvisation, as evidenced by numerous inconsistencies in the Kremlin’s actions.
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Although America is ‘back’ at NATO, Europe remains unsettled about the credibility and longevity of US commitments to the alliance. A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the alliance’s next Strategic Concept and how the two sides will craft a common agenda to endure the coming decade. The Biden administration, despite a few recent transatlantic missteps, recognises the gravity of this moment and has come prepared with a focused set of priorities for NATO’s future.
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What is AUKUS and what is it not? What does it mean for Europe, NATO and the Indo-Pacific?
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After the Ukraine crisis, Moscow has learnt that narratives on a potent “China-Russia alliance” can be weaponised to influence the decision-making of its targets and leverage concessions from countries alarmed by China’s rise. Thus, this narrative has been often purposefully advanced by Vladimir Putin and instrumentalised by agents of influence, such as those of the Valdai Discussion Club, as a pretext to return to “business as usual” with Moscow.
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Learning from Russian incursions, and its assertive foreign policy that has seen limited resistance, might encourage China to achieve national rejuvenation before the 2049 deadline by giving up the idea of peaceful unification of Taiwan with China.
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