Russia is investing in the development of a variety of hypersonic delivery systems. These can travel to targets at five or more times the speed of sound, elude defences by evasive manoeuvring, and deliver munitions with great precision.
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Russia’s approach toward Ukraine does not seem to be the result of well-considered foreign policy calculations, rather it represents constant improvisation, as evidenced by numerous inconsistencies in the Kremlin’s actions.
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Although America is ‘back’ at NATO, Europe remains unsettled about the credibility and longevity of US commitments to the alliance. A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the alliance’s next Strategic Concept and how the two sides will craft a common agenda to endure the coming decade. The Biden administration, despite a few recent transatlantic missteps, recognises the gravity of this moment and has come prepared with a focused set of priorities for NATO’s future.
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What is AUKUS and what is it not? What does it mean for Europe, NATO and the Indo-Pacific?
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After the Ukraine crisis, Moscow has learnt that narratives on a potent “China-Russia alliance” can be weaponised to influence the decision-making of its targets and leverage concessions from countries alarmed by China’s rise. Thus, this narrative has been often purposefully advanced by Vladimir Putin and instrumentalised by agents of influence, such as those of the Valdai Discussion Club, as a pretext to return to “business as usual” with Moscow.
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Learning from Russian incursions, and its assertive foreign policy that has seen limited resistance, might encourage China to achieve national rejuvenation before the 2049 deadline by giving up the idea of peaceful unification of Taiwan with China.
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Support for the Taliban regime appears to be unprecedented in Russian foreign policy, as it calls into question the official doctrine that, always and everywhere, Moscow stands up only for legitimate governments and condemns any illegitimate overthrow of them.
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Promotion of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will serve to connect Europe and Asia. ‘Sincere powers’ should proactively interact with each other and seek to convince the major powers such as China to restrain their behaviour and adhere to the international norms and rules.
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‘I did what I came here to do’ is exactly what Ronald Reagan might have said. But whilst Reagan had a talent for making toughness sound affable, the challenge for Joseph Biden after his two and a half hour summit with Vladimir Putin on 16 June 2021 will be to persuade his home base, and Putin himself, that he will show toughness through deeds and substance. When he told the State Department on 5 February that ‘the days of the United States rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions are over’, he faced no such challenge. But Biden now has a credibility problem in both Washington and Moscow.
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Moscow’s resurgent foreign policy and the undemocratic rule of President Vladimir Putin ended the relatively friendly relations that had been possible between Russia and the West in the 1990s. In the seven years since Russia annexed Crimea and started a war of attrition against Ukraine, the security situation in the transatlantic region has continuously deteriorated. The Kremlin has demonstrated hostility towards the West, crises and security issues have continued to multiply instead of being resolved, and the risk of outright conflict has come close to Cold War peaks. There is an obvious and urgent need to lower tensions, but Moscow prefers to demonstrate its readiness to escalate.
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