Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has given a new impetus to the EU’s enlargement. Although Ukraine and other candidate countries have a long way to go to full membership, it is useful to start analysing the potential impact of Ukraine’s accession.
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When taking over from the French on 1 July 2022, the Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union prioritised several key areas, all connected with the EU response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine and its consequences for the block. At the core of the Czech thinking were the issues stemming from energy security and defence policy, as well as resilient institutions and the wave of refugees. These priorities were best manifested in the Czech and European leadership, particularly in Eastern Europe.
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The EU Strategic Compass provides an opportunity to pre-empt the logjams that have held EU foreign policy back for too long. But one should never underestimate the debilitating capacity of the EU to divide itself. However, the EU’s firm response to Russia’s full-blown war in Ukraine is a welcome and much needed change from such practices.
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There is broad agreement that the European states should do more for their own security and defence, but little consensus on how to achieve this goal, or on what role strategic autonomy may have in delivering it. In the EU, perhaps the most likely framework for creating the necessary capacity, the Member States have signed up to a higher level of military ambition, but their employment of military force through the Common Security and Defence Policy has remained modest.
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The discussion about Europe’s ability to forge a more independent route in international affairs has spilled over from the realm of defence to other areas such as foreign policy, trade, digital and health.
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President Emmanuel Macron has poked the hornet’s nest, calling in a 6 November interview for a “real European Army”.
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The French call it l’Europe de la Défence. At first glance this seems to suggest, at least to non-French observers, a concept based on the complementarity and synergy of NATO’s military muscle and hard security guarantees, and the economic might and soft power (and capacity for resilience) provided by the European Union.
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On 8-10 October, ICDS Head of Studies and Research Fellow Tomas Jermalavičius attended the high-level seminar “Eastern Partnership and European Security: Enhanced Cooperation to Overcome Common Challenges” which took place in Vilnius, Lithuania.
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The enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup in Estonia will welcome its third French rotating contribution during 2019.
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The term “European strategic autonomy” has been around for a while, but it gained more attention with the publication of the EU Global Strategy in 2016 and president Macron’s continuous use of the phrase since.
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