Ukraine’s ability to repel one of the world’s leading military powers has surprised the world. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, neither Russia — despite its superiority in numbers and capabilities — nor Ukraine has been able to establish air superiority.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been game-changing for Europe’s security, challenging the long-held beliefs and assumptions of many Western nations and prompting dramatic shifts in policy, for example, in Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The war’s conduct has also produced significant surprises, not least the unexpectedly poor performance of Russia’s supposedly reformed military.
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The fifth brief of the series looks at the early air war. Russia’s failure to conduct a devastating air offensive and secure air superiority, despite having all the advantages on paper at the start of its war in Ukraine, was a great surprise to observers and had major strategic impact.
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The ongoing discussion about Germany’s role in NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements is unfortunate as it raises questions about the country’s commitment to European security and defence.
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“On a day-to-day basis, NATO air policing can react to airspace intrusions or violations of flight rules that Estonia would be unable to deal with alone — this is important for preserving territorial integrity,” Tony Lawrence, a research fellow at the Tallinn-based International Centre for Defence Security think tank, told Defense News.
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On 11-12 July 2018, the heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Alliance met in Brussels.
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NATO is in the middle of the active phase of its largest military exercise for some years.
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NATO’s air defence capability has declined over the past decades, a period during which the Allies have usually been able to operate assuming air superiority. Russia’s air power, by contrast, has grown in size and sophistication.
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The next NATO Summit meeting will be held in Brussels on 11–12 July. The heads of state and government will be taking stock of the decisions of the Wales and Warsaw Summits and implement further the adaptation of the Alliance to respond to the wide range of 21st-century security challenges.
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On 13 October ICDS Research Fellow Piret Pernik was interviewed by Debating Europe on the future of warfare.
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