December 18, 2008

Gas, Realpolitik and Insecurity

These days there are so significant changes underway – changes of historical importance – that Condoleezza Rice recently said in a speech that she sometimes felt that the ground beneath her feet was shaking. Clearly, she was referring to the Middle East and to Afghanistan. The stakes there are very high indeed. Furthermore, a new crisis is imminent – realistically speaking, how can the development of Iran’s nuclear potential be averted? It is impossible to repeat the 1981 adventure, when Israel simply bombed Iraq’s nuclear power station before its completion, destroying it in an air raid. The surprise factor is gone. Teheran is ready for such an attack.

These days there are so significant changes underway – changes of historical importance – that Condoleezza Rice recently said in a speech that she sometimes felt that the ground beneath her feet was shaking. Clearly, she was referring to the Middle East and to Afghanistan. The stakes there are very high indeed. Furthermore, a new crisis is imminent – realistically speaking, how can the development of Iran’s nuclear potential be averted? It is impossible to repeat the 1981 adventure, when Israel simply bombed Iraq’s nuclear power station before its completion, destroying it in an air raid. The surprise factor is gone. Teheran is ready for such an attack.


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