The Future of the Electoral College After the US Midterms

Following the midterms, Democrats have regained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, this ‘blue tsunami’ extended beyond Congress in Washington, DC, to gubernatorial and state legislative elections, with potential implications for the upcoming 2028 presidential elections.

On 3 November, US voters elected members of Congress, as well as 36 of the 50 governors and representatives in 88 of the 99 state chambers (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature). Democrats flipped several governorships and state legislatures. This could now affect one major interstate compact: the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC).

The NPVIC aims to ensure that participating states allocate their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins the nationwide popular vote rather than the state vote. As a legally binding compact between states, it would require participating states and their electors to comply. Although the NPVIC would not abolish the Electoral College, it would fundamentally change how electors award their votes. De jure, presidential elections would remain indirect, but de facto, the Electoral College majority would reflect the nationwide popular vote, making presidential elections considerably more direct. Five presidents in US history have won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. The most recent examples were Republican candidates George W. Bush (2000, against Al Gore) and Donald Trump (2016, against Hillary Clinton).

Although the NPVIC would not abolish the Electoral College, it would fundamentally change how electors award their votes.

Since 2007, the District of Columbia and 18 mostly Democratic-governed states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, and Washington State) have adopted the NPVIC, accounting for 222 Electoral College votes. Maryland was the first state to join the NPVIC in April 2007, and Virginia most recently in April 2026. However, under Article 4, the NPVIC takes effect only after states representing at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes adopt it. This means that 48 votes are still needed. The recent blue tsunami could now increase the number of NPVIC states.

Potential new member states fall into two categories. First, some states have already introduced or passed legislation to join the NPVIC. These include Arizona (11 electors), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), and Oklahoma (7). Together, they account for 61 electors, exceeding the needed 48 electors. However, some bills date back several years and would likely need to be reintroduced or passed again.

The recent blue tsunami could now increase the number of NPVIC states.

The second category is therefore more interesting: states where Democrats have now flipped control of the State Government Trifecta, consisting of the state legislature and the governorship. This category includes Arizona (11 electors), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10), again totalling 61 votes and exceeding the required 48 electors. In Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), and Texas (40), Democrats flipped the governorships and the State Houses but narrowly missed securing a majority in the respective State Senates.

Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether the NPVIC will be in force by the 2028 presidential election. Under Article 3, the NPVIC must reach the 270-elector threshold by 20 July of each election year. As most newly elected state legislatures take office between December 2026 and January 2027, lawmakers would have around 18 months. It is unclear whether this timeframe will be sufficient, given the bureaucratic and legislative hurdles.

Several constitutional debates surrounding the NPVIC are also ongoing: Article I, Section 10 of the US Constitution states: “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, […], enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, […]”. Supporters of NPVIC, however, cite Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution, which grants states the power to determine how their Electoral College electors are appointed, claiming that congressional consent under Article I, Section 10 is unnecessary. Other debates concern cases in which electors fail to follow their states’ voting requirements, as well as the rights and protection of national minorities. The NPVIC may therefore face several future constitutional reviews.

However, activating the NPVIC for the 2028 election would address two major criticisms of the presidential election system. Although the NPVIC would not abolish the Electoral College, it would de facto introduce direct elections, shifting debates from blue, red, and swing states to political issues, campaigns and candidates. In addition, NPVIC would make presidential elections more equal: a vote from California would carry the same weight as one from New Hampshire. In a June 2026 poll, 56% of the US population supported abolishing the Electoral College in favour of a popular vote. In this sense, the NPVIC would be a step in the right direction.

Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).