Europe’s War and the Baltic Lesson: Building Resilience When the Front Is Everywhere

The frontline has moved. The war is already here, and managing it by financial and policy decisions is no longer enough. To withstand the aggression and win the war, Europe needs cultural and psychological shifts.

Europe is already at war. Michael Kimmage’s recent essay in Foreign Policy makes that plain, and uncomfortably so. The supposed distinction between Russia’s war on Ukraine and Europe’s “peace” has dissolved. Moscow makes no such distinction. Its drones violate NATO airspace, saboteurs probe pipelines and cables, and its information operations target democratic nerves. Europe is inside the same war—just fighting it in different forms. Recognising that truth is the starting point of resilience. And nowhere in Europe has that understanding been clearer than in Estonia and across the Baltic states.

From Deterrence to the Defence of Society

For Estonia, deterrence has never been a matter of abstract ratios or force tables. It begins with people—how they think, organise, and keep the lights on when the world flickers. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined NATO not only for collective defence but to embed a culture of vigilance: the idea that national security is a civic habit, not a military speciality.

National security is a civic habit, not a military speciality

Over two decades, the Baltic states have built what amounts to societal defence architecture: cyber networks hardened against intrusion, energy systems designed for redundancy, and schools that teach students how to spot disinformation as naturally as they learn history. Estonia’s volunteer Defence League is part of daily life. Teachers, coders, and reservists train together, all of them understanding that defence is a national reflex. These measures aren’t theoretical—they’re routines born of geography and memory.

Estonia’s operationalisation of resilience across ministries and industries has helped make NATO’s eastern front a testbed for Europe’s future. In Tallinn, conversations about “whole-of-society” defence aren’t aspirational—they’re Tuesday afternoon. Estonia may be small, but it has built the connective tissue between government, private enterprise, and public confidence that many larger democracies are still searching for.

Europe’s Awakening

Europe’s real challenge is cultural, not financial. It has the resources to outlast Russia; what it struggles with is self-perception. Too often, resilience is treated as crisis management rather than a standing posture. The Baltics show that endurance can be institutionalised—through patient investment, regular drills, and civic education that treats democratic participation as part of defence readiness.

Europe’s real challenge is cultural, not financial. It has the resources to outlast Russia; what it struggles with is self-perception

A turning point in this awakening came in early 2023, when Berlin finally agreed to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. At the time, The Economist observed that Germany had stopped treating the conflict as a peripheral crisis to be managed and begun to understand it as a real war that would define Europe’s security order. Having worked at NATO during that period, I saw the debate change in real time. The decision was more than a policy shift—it was a psychological one. Germany’s realisation mirrored what Estonia had long understood: the war was already here, and managing it was no longer enough.

Estonia’s “X-Road” digital backbone, its off-site data vaults, and the Defence League’s integration of cyber and territorial units all embody that same mindset. Estonia’s X-Road ensures that even under attack, the state doesn’t go offline. It is resilience made literal—the digital nervous system of a society that has learned to survive while connected.

These aren’t curiosities of a front-line state; they’re blueprints for a Europe that understands security as continuity. The Baltic experience reframes deterrence itself: not as the promise of punishment, but as the capacity of free societies to absorb shock and keep governing.

The New Front Line

Kimmage is right—Ukraine’s war is Europe’s war. The Baltics have known this for years. Estonia’s story shows that democracies can adapt faster than they believe, if they treat resilience not as an emergency measure but as second nature.

The question now isn’t whether Europe is at war. It’s whether it can preserve the peace inside its own societies long enough to win the larger contest for endurance.

Resilience, after all, isn’t a destination. It’s a muscle you exercise every day

Resilience, after all, isn’t a destination. It’s a muscle you exercise every day—and in Tallinn, that discipline is already part of the national rhythm.

Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).