The question of whether and on what conditions Russia could someday find its place among free and democratic western states has been under close scrutiny ever since the end of the Cold War. In 1992, President Richard Nixon warned the West that instead of transitioning to a fully-fledged liberal democracy, Russia would be seeking a third way to reconcile Soviet stability and enforced security with capitalist prosperity. By 2024, the Russia that he warned us about has fully materialised and is actively challenging global peace and security. Is this aggressive, inherently undemocratic direction solely the fault of the repressive state apparatus, or could bottom-up dynamics play a role in blocking Russia’s so-called normalisation?
The analysis unpacks three core reasons for the continued lack of democratisation in Russia. Internationally renowned opposition leaders have reached a stalemate, emigration to the free world is substituting domestic reforms, and the dysfunctional societal stances that eventually reversed Gorbachev’s liberal reforms persist among the masses up to this day. As the leadership above, so the population below — freedom and democracy remain collectively misrepresented, inherently foreign concepts for Russians, in the face of which no coup, colour revolution, or western-backed liberal leader could institute lasting change.
Download and read: Catching the Wind in a Net? Prospects for Russia’s Democratisation (PDF)