Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest

While maintaining traditional ties with Russia, Central Asian states have seen China’s growing economic and security footprint, as well as the increasing role of other powers—or ‘the rest’—such as the EU, the US, Türkiye, India, Pakistan, Iran, and the Gulf states.

China has become the leading economic actor in the region—not only in trade but also in critical areas such as physical and digital infrastructure. Despite China’s rise, Russia’s influence remains significant in remittances, education, media, and language.

In the security domain, although Russia remains the dominant actor in military-to-military interactions, China has gradually expanded its presence, particularly in border security activities near Afghanistan and counterterrorism efforts contributing to the political stability of Central Asian regimes. Central Asia has become a testing ground for many of China’s global undertakings.

China is thus eroding Russia’s ‘sphere of influence’ in Central Asia. Yet it would be misleading to view this trend simply as China gradually replacing Russia in the region. Instead, Central Asian countries are increasingly pursuing multi-vector foreign policies and leveraging overlapping spheres of influence to maximise their own agency and strategic autonomy.

In the evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape, the EU has an opportunity to build mutually beneficial partnerships and contribute meaningfully to Central Asia’s resilience, prosperity, and regional integration.

• The EU should support the regional cooperation and further intra-regional integration efforts to bolster Central Asia’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly contested geopolitical landscape.
• The EU can learn from Türkiye’s approach of targeted investments and soft power and enhance its visibility by using EU contractors and focusing on people-to-people ties.
• Education, student exchanges, and academic partnerships are a strategic opportunity for the EU to promote democratic values through lived experience rather than abstract advocacy.
• The EU can assist countries in economic reform, as well as liberalising and modernising sectors such as energy, while conditional credit and technical support can advance both competitiveness and governance.
• The EU also acts as a soft security provider, sharing best practices in border management and rule of law—contrasting with China’s and Russia’s securitised approaches.
• EU–Central Asia coordination is essential to advance regional stability and inclusive governance in Afghanistan.