March 13, 2014

What is Russia up to in Ukraine?

Ukrainian news site Obozrevatel.com has quoted former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Vice Admiral Ihor Kabanenko who claims, that Russian Federation is in advanced stages of readying itself for a front level offensive against Ukraine. Russian airbourne units under command of General Sahamanov are training with strategic aviation units. Russia has completed (1) formation of a task force for penetrating Ukrainian air defences and (2) establishing of an air defence zone of its own. Simultaneously, Russian Federation continues destabilisation activities deep inside Ukrainian territory. Reinforcements keep arriving in Crimea and on the eastern borders of Ukraine. According to website Grani.ru, the grouping of Russian forces on the eastern frontier of Ukraine has grown to 220,000 troops.

Ukrainian news site Obozrevatel.com has quoted former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Vice Admiral Ihor Kabanenko who claims, that Russian Federation is in advanced stages of readying itself for a front level offensive against Ukraine. Russian airbourne units under command of General Sahamanov are training with strategic aviation units. Russia has completed (1) formation of a task force for penetrating Ukrainian air defences and (2) establishing of an air defence zone of its own. Simultaneously, Russian Federation continues destabilisation activities deep inside Ukrainian territory. Reinforcements keep arriving in Crimea and on the eastern borders of Ukraine. According to website Grani.ru, the grouping of Russian forces on the eastern frontier of Ukraine has grown to 220,000 troops.

Admiral Kabanenko says that he as a military man has no doubts that Russia prepares for the aerial and land offensive against the whole of Ukraine. He called politicians to open mobilisation depots to arm people.

Admiral Kabanenko has suggested earlier that Putin’s plan for military action against Ukraine includes following steps:

1) Rapid annexation of Crimea and subsequent build-up of Russian troops there;

2) After March 16, Russian special forces and airbourne units will create favourable conditions for the offensives of:
a. Russian 20th Army in the direction of Donetsk;
b. 3rd Army in the direction of Lugansk;
c. 106th Division in the direction of Kiev;
d. Russian forces in Crimea to Dniepr in order to cut Ukraine in half;

3) The main thrust of Russian forces in Crimea will be directed at Odessa where preparatory activities will be completed by forces from Transdniester area;

4) On the 5-7 day of the offensive Russian forces will have to control the arc Lugansk-Donetsk-Nikolayev-Odessa-Tiraspol in order to prevent Ukraine’s access to sea;

5) Russian Federation will negotiate new borders with Ukraine from these positions.

Vice Admiral Ihor Kabanenko has had an illustrious career in the Ukrainian Armed Forces that involved an intensive cooperation and many interactions with NATO and EU armed forces. It was interrupted by a forced retirement on the basis of fabricated corruption charges. President Yanukovitch accepted Admiral Kabanenko’s resignation in December 2013, but in February 2014 the Ukrainian security service SBU dropped all charges and apologised for its earlier actions.

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