Ukrainian War Refugees in Estonia: Sociodemographic Portrait and Support Policies

Demographics will be one of the most difficult challenges for post-war Ukraine. Depopulation, combined with emigration, poses significant risks to the country’s socio-economic recovery.[1] In July 2025, Ukraine’s government adopted a decision to merge the Ministry of National Unity with the Ministry of Social Policy.[2] The Ministry will now be responsible for the respective state policies, as well as the protection of the rights of Ukrainians abroad. Estonia has a significant proportion of Ukrainian citizens relative to its population. Understanding the sociodemographic profile of Ukrainian refugees and the level of support from the host country can be useful for adjusting the strategy for their return from abroad.

Since 24 February 2022, 54 000 Ukrainian refugees have registered to receive temporary protection in Estonia. As of June 2025, around 34 000 had an active temporary protection status—about 3% of the host nation’s population.[3] These figures, as reported by the Police and Border Guard Board and Statistics Estonia, may be lower than the total number of Ukrainian citizens in the country.[4]

Among the EU member states, the highest proportions of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand individuals were observed in Czechia (35.7), Poland (27.1), and Estonia (25.8), in contrast to the EU average of 9.5. By 31 December 2024, Ukrainians had accounted for over 98.3% of those granted temporary protection across the EU, with almost half of them being women (44.8%) and children (roughly 31.9%); adult men made up less than 23.2% of the total.[5]

The Profile

The vast majority of Ukrainian refugees in Estonia were able to legalise their stay through the temporary protection mechanism. This status provides the opportunity to adapt to the socio-cultural conditions and to access the labour market, as well as social and medical services.

Although the government and civil society have implemented a well-coordinated response, refugees continue to face challenges in adequately supporting themselves and their families

In 2024, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) conducted a Socio-Economic Insights Survey and facilitated workshops with refugees, NGOs, and government partners to evaluate the primary needs of refugees in Estonia, which uncovered persistent challenges in areas such as protection, education, livelihood, and healthcare.[6] 39% of households indicated that they have encountered hostile behaviour or attitudes from the local population at some point, including instances of verbal aggression and discrimination, especially in the contexts of employment and housing. However, statistics indicate that 93% of Ukrainian refugees report feeling safe, while nearly 77% maintain positive relationships with the host community in Estonia.

According to the survey, the highest percentage of Ukrainian citizens (27%) arrived in Estonia in March 2022. Over the ensuing months and years, the data shows a noticeable drop in new arrivals.[7] Around 65% have been displaced for over two years, with half of them having arrived within the initial three months following the full-scale invasion. Middle-aged women and children comprise the preponderance of Ukrainian refugees. The male-to-female ratio in Ukrainian households in Estonia is approximately 40% to 60%. Just over half have children (51%), with a third of household members being minors, mostly aged 5 to 17. Around 22% of Ukrainian households in Estonia are single-parent, with no male members over the age of 18. Individuals aged over 60 constitute 9% of Ukrainian refugees, while those in the ‘active’ age bracket of 18 to 59 represent 60%. 3% of households had breastfeeding or pregnant women, and 41% have individuals with chronic health conditions.

Estonia’s focus has moved from immediate humanitarian aid to sustainable inclusion, emphasising language training, job skills, and mental health

82% of Ukrainian households reported receiving temporary protection in Estonia, while 10% applied and were awaiting a decision; 4% stated they had been granted refugee status, and approximately 2% had a permanent or long-term residence permit or visa. Most respondents (86%) successfully registered changes in their family composition or civil status with the local authorities.

At the time of the survey, 69% of working-age refugees were employed, while 10% were unemployed.[8] Employment was impeded by language barriers, inadequate compensation, a lack of opportunities that aligned with one’s qualifications or experience, and unsuitable work schedules. Approximately 40% of Ukrainian refugees believe they possess a ‘generally good’ understanding of the Estonian language. Over half have participated in language courses, with an overwhelming majority expressing satisfaction with the quality of education (84%). 40% said they were likely to enrol in Estonian language courses within six months. This may facilitate labour market inclusion, interactions with institutions, and the utilisation of everyday activities and services.

Assistance

The EU’s main instrument for supporting Ukrainian war refugees is the development of Refugee Response Plans (RRPs). The objective of the Estonian government in the realm of immigration is to integrate refugees from Ukraine into the national social support and protection framework. This will ensure that refugees are provided with the necessary conditions to achieve self-sufficiency and independence, as well as to integrate into Estonian society while maintaining a connection to the Ukrainian language and culture. Although the government and civil society have implemented a well-coordinated response, refugees continue to face challenges in adequately supporting themselves and their families. To confront the obstacles, such as language barriers and job shortages, RRP’s partners in Estonia will persist in their endeavours through 2025-26, in conjunction with government initiatives.

More than 80% of households in Estonia with refugees from Ukraine indicate that they reside in a non-shared apartment or house. The majority of households (79%) cover the entire cost of their accommodation. The total share subsidised by the state is 13%, with 12% of partial subsidies. A little less than 84% of people who live in non-shared housing cover all of their costs. From 1 September 2024, Estonia has changed the rules for rental compensation to Ukrainian refugees, limiting it to the recent arrivals.[9] Specifically, refugees who have been in the country for more than a year will only be eligible for rental assistance if they apply within the first six months after receiving a residence permit. Compensation is provided by local authorities and then reimbursed by the state through the Social Insurance Board.

Estonia’s policies towards Ukrainian war refugees demonstrate a balance of immediate support and long-term integration efforts

In addition to housing compensation, Ukrainian refugees can also apply for financial assistance for translation services (up to €3 200 per family or €1 600 per person for two years). In general, social protection systems provide coverage for 46% of Ukrainian refugees. To compare, Estonia’s social protection system covers 45% of the population, while Ukraine covers only 10%. Child or family benefits are the most frequently received support payments (59%) among the Estonian population.

Nearly 80% of Ukrainian refugees in Estonia plan to stay for at least another year, which suggests a necessity for long-term integration.[10] Estonia’s focus has thus moved from immediate humanitarian aid to sustainable inclusion, emphasising language training, job skills, and mental health support. As an example, the Estonian Refugee Council provides mental health services across 21 European countries, and programmes like Edge Up, in collaboration with Latvian partners, support labour market integration. However, expert discussions mention controversial sentiments: Estonia’s potential readiness to extradite refugees subject to Ukrainian mobilisation, though this would require a bilateral agreement and remains unconfirmed.[11]

To facilitate repatriation, it is imperative for the Ukrainian government to acknowledge the necessity of a simpler process and modify social protection policies, particularly during the initial phases of reintegration

In the years 2025 and 2026, UNHCR, alongside its partners in Estonia, will engage in a variety of activities focused on refugee protection. These will encompass monitoring aimed at discerning the risks and challenges, in conjunction with advocacy initiatives directed at helping authorities tackle systemic issues. The partners’ objective is to improve Estonia’s refugee response system. Furthermore, the most vulnerable refugees and those transiting through Estonia will receive essential services, legal counselling, temporary accommodation, and multipurpose cash assistance from their partners.

Conclusion

The data available give grounds to claim the successful adaptation of Ukrainians. The following mechanisms of government support policy in Estonia are noteworthy: simplified bureaucratic procedures for obtaining temporary protection status; provision of free Estonian language courses and adaptation training; and housing compensation. To facilitate repatriation, it is imperative for the Ukrainian government to acknowledge the necessity of a simpler process and modify social protection policies to assist the returnees, particularly during the initial phases of reintegration, with due attention to the socio-cultural aspects.

Estonia’s policies towards Ukrainian war refugees in 2025 demonstrate a balance of immediate support and long-term integration efforts. High employment and education enrollment rates indicate that refugees are adapting, but economic vulnerabilities and reduced financial aid pose risks. Estonia’s commitment to temporary protection, healthcare, and education, alongside civil society support, makes it attractive as a country of residence for Ukrainian refugees. Addressing war fatigue among Estonians, ensuring equitable labour conditions, and sustaining support for vulnerable groups will be critical moving forward.

Endnotes

[1] Mykola Nazarov, “Returning Ukrainians Home: Mission Possible?,” ICDS, 28 May 2025.

[2] Ministry of Social Policy, Family and Unity of Ukraine, “The Ministry of Social Policy changes its name and expands its scope of responsibilities,” 22 July 2025.

[3] Eurostat, “Beneficiaries of temporary protection at the end of the month by citizenship, age and sex – monthly data,” 25 July 2025.

[4] Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Estonia), “Estonia’s aid to Ukraine,” 23 February 2025.

[5] Eurostat, “4.3 million under temporary protection in December 2024,” 10 February 2025.

[6] UNCR, Regional Refugee Response Plan for the Ukraine Situation, Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS) Estonia 2024 (Operation Data Portal, February 2025).

[7] “Ukrainian refugee arrivals to Estonia in 2024 a third of previous years,” ERR, 28 November 2024.

[8] International Organization for Migration, “Estonia — Labour Market Integration of Refugees from Ukraine (January – March 2024),” 4 July 2024.

[9] “Estonia has changed the conditions for payment of rental compensation for Ukrainians: new rules,” Visit Ukraine, 10 September 2024.

[10] UNHCR Nordic and Baltic Countries, “Ukraine Refugee Situation,” April 2025.

[11] “Estonia prepared to repatriate mobilization-aged men to Ukraine,” ERR, December 2023.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions contained in this paper are solely of its author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the International Centre for Defence and Security or any other organisation.