Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has given a new impetus to the EU’s enlargement. Although Ukraine and other candidate countries have a long way to go to full membership, it is useful to start analysing the potential impact of Ukraine’s accession.
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When Estonia together with nine other countries joined the EU twenty years ago, there was no talk about a geopolitical enlargement. The most important goals of the “big bang” enlargement were to consolidate democracy and enhance prosperity and stability in the so-called post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Their parallel accession to NATO provided them with security guarantees, but the dominant view in the Euro-Atlantic community was that European states did not face any direct military threat.
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In Estonian politics, there is a widespread agreement on the security and prosperity benefits of EU enlargement, particularly regarding Ukraine, but also for other candidate countries. However, nuances exist among different parties regarding the trade-off between the geopolitical argument for enlargement and the potential losses that Estonia might face.
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Sweden’s flag was raised at NATO headquarters at midday on 11 March 2024, ceremonially marking one of the most surprising outcomes of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In the face of Russia’s aggression and the risks it presented to their own security, Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023, and Sweden had abandoned decades-long policies of neutrality and non-alignment to become the Alliance’s 31st and 32nd member states. Our report examines the consequences of these changes, largely from the perspective of the defence of the Baltic states.
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In the 18 months of the war, Ukraine has achieved significant progress in digital transformation and implementation of trust services. The current geopolitical context makes further development of innovative digital solutions, technologies, and infrastructures that are based on the EU’s values and principles ever more relevant.
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The EU has embarked on a new eastward enlargement at the time of a major breaking point in European and international order. It is obvious that Ukraine’s accession will bring about substantial changes in the EU’s policies and international clout.
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While each previous addition of new member states has had an effect on the EU’s institutional architecture, the impact of Ukraine’s accession would be particularly large given the sheer size of the country.
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With the EU due to decide whether to open accession negotiations with Ukraine before the year’s end, it is urgent now to inform the political debate about the practical consequences of such a decision.
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The sheer size and geopolitical significance of Ukraine would have, in and of itself, required a clear and coherent policy from the European Union in the aftermath of the Cold War. However, the EU’s focus was initially on the countries that joined the EU in 2004, and on Russia.
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Ukraine is applying for EU membership at a time when Russia has attacked it in a war of choice. The European Commission is expected to present its opinion on Ukraine’s application in mid-June, to be followed by a decision of the European Council on 23–24 June. While public opinion across the EU has turned largely supportive of membership for Ukraine, official positions remain divided between strong support, mainly in the Eastern member states, and a more reserved position elsewhere.
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