Never alone! This is the lesson of our history, the maxim we have repeated to ourselves, and the principle that has guided us in preserving our independence—so that the Estonian language can be heard, the Estonian spirit can be strengthened, the Estonian people can grow, and the Estonian state can remain free. It is in this spirit that we have taken our steps over the past three decades and drawn our strength.
And we are not alone. We have Allies in NATO, we have comradeship forged through international military operations, and we have jointly negotiated defence plans. Allied forces are stationed on Estonian soil, ready to defend Estonia alongside our own Defence Forces. In the same way, the Estonian soldiers stand ready to defend other Allied states should they feel threatened or come under threat. Meanwhile, the European Union provides its member states with a safety net of economic stability and crisis management. Such solidarity is a powerful binding force, one that potential adversaries must take into account.
But times have changed. There is war in Europe, close to us—a war of aggression. Neo-imperialism is on the rise, and autocracies are consolidating and growing in confidence. The United States is rethinking its approach to the market economy. Europe is striving to find its place in the world and to harness its considerable potential to project influence. Under these new conditions, solutions that once seemed rock solid may no longer feel so certain, and navigating them may require adjustments.
In this new reality, we are confronted with a number of major challenges. The democratic world needs statesmanlike leaders. Countries must uphold a world order based on values. Europe must find the leverage to strengthen its influence. To achieve this, we must pull together—not only we Estonians but all those who stand for freedom, the rule of law, and democracy. Only together are we strong.
Democracy Needs Statesmanship
At the end of the Cold War, it seemed that the world belonged to democracies—that they would set the direction, focus attention, and inspire others. From the 1970s until the early years of this century, the number of democratic countries grew rapidly. Democracy as a system of governance showed signs of strengthening around the globe, and the future seemed clear. Yet since 2017, a turning point has emerged. According to research by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) in Stockholm, democracy has shown signs of weakening worldwide over the past eight years. We, too, are aware of this.
Europe remains a flagship of democratic governance, yet even here we observe similar trends. Democracy is in retreat. What amplifies the alarm is that, at the same time, autocracies are gaining ground, challenging democratic ways of life in many places and by many means. This diminishes democracy’s influence and reduces the number of those who would be inspired to follow its path as it once did. Moreover, we too often face a lack of unity and difficulties in reaching consensus. It is not merely a matter of one dissenting voice; there are more of them, and over time, the number of such countries or leaders has actually grown.
To overcome these problems, the democratic world now needs leaders more than ever—leaders who can build consensus, bridge differences, carry sufficient weight and credibility, and be willing to set aside selfish interests in favour of the common good. Without principled leadership, problems will only grow, and threats will become reality.
The World Order Needs Preserving
The post-Second World War world order allows small states to exist alongside large ones and, where the will exists, to have a say in world affairs. At the heart of this world order are the principles set out in the United Nations Charter, principles that underpin the functioning of today’s world and that all 194 member states have agreed upon. Among the most important are respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, the right of states to self-defence, the renunciation of the use of force and the peaceful settlement of disputes, and the protection of human rights. In principle, all member states are equal: regardless of their size or economic strength, every state has a voice in decision-making and the right to contribute to the preparation of decisions.
For states, especially small ones, it is far easier to survive and preserve their independence in a world based on these principles. In a world that disregards these norms or is founded on different ones—where decisions are made solely based on size or strength, without listening to others—the existence of small states would be far more precarious. Or, in the long term, would it even be possible at all?
A network of international institutions has been created to anchor and apply these principles, dealing with vital areas of life such as health, the environment, cultural heritage, children’s rights, finance, security, or the resolution of regional issues. Among the latter are the European Union and NATO, both founded on the basis of the UN Charter. To that end, read the opening line of the preamble to the North Atlantic Treaty.
The problem is that this broad institutional network is no longer functioning effectively. Disagreements outweigh consensus, the world is becoming increasingly polarised, and fundamental principles are often disregarded. Attention is shifting towards ideological contests of strength, where the substance of problems frequently gets lost. Major powers prefer to act independently, sidelining and ignoring others. This erosion of cooperation is evident globally and also within regional organisations, including in Europe. The breakdown of the world order inevitably leads to the weakening of institutions, including those most important to Estonia. We must not compromise on principles, give them up easily, or exchange them for pennies. Here, too, we must stand together.
Europe Needs Leverage
Unfortunately, principles and institutions alone are often not enough. Principles must be enforced, anchored, and kept natural. For that, influence is needed—influence that is based on setting an example, on economic instruments, and on development cooperation, but also on military power and capability. The past three years have exposed shortfalls in Europe’s military readiness and capabilities, and the continent’s excessive dependence on the United States in this area.
Many of us have recognised that to uphold our values and strengthen our influence, Europe must invest more in defence than before. There is a need for a defence capability that would be able to hold back the autocratic forces and deter both the hybrid threats and a full-fledged war. Supporting Ukraine has made this much clearer to us: far greater investment is needed. Military capabilities must be built, and military equipment produced, at a much faster pace and in a technologically advanced way. This will require significantly higher spending, and Estonia—along with several of its neighbours—has already decided to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. But this contribution will only achieve the desired impact if other countries, particularly the large ones, also sharply increase their defence budgets and stimulate their defence industries. A spirit of cooperation would help us, if not to solve, then at least to neutralise many of the problems that have been looming on the horizon for some time.
In short, Estonia’s contribution is important, but the impact of these efforts will be much greater if we move forward together. Whether you are small or large, you are weaker alone than with others.
Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).