Highly unpleasant surprise for Moscow

The recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran came as a highly unpleasant surprise for Moscow. The Russian Foreign Ministry put out a steady stream of statements on the situation in Iran, issuing daily criticism of Israel and the United States, while Vladimir Putin sent the Iranian president an unusually emotional telegram expressing condolences over the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Until the morning of 28 February 2026, the Kremlin had assumed that under Donald Trump, the United States would follow the new tenets of its updated National Security Strategy and limit its sphere of interest to the Western Hemisphere. Washington withdrew from the ranks of countries supporting Ukraine and even began openly discussing a reduction of its presence in Europe. Senior Russian officials went so far as to describe the new US administration as one that understood and listened to “Russia’s concerns” on geopolitical issues, including Ukraine.

In this context, the targeted strikes on nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz in the summer of 2025 were perceived in Moscow as an unconventional attempt by Trump to pressure Tehran and to demonstrate to American voters that he could secure a better deal with Iran than Barack Obama. That is why the lightning-fast arrest of Nicolás Maduro and even the pursuit of tankers belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet were met with a rather muted reaction from the Russian authorities. The Kremlin remained convinced that global domination is beyond America’s capacity and that outside the Western Hemisphere, the United States would refrain from taking decisive actions.

The joint US–Israeli military operation upended the Russian leadership’s calculations. The prospect of regime change in Iran is now on the agenda, potentially shifting the regional geopolitical balance to the Kremlin’s disadvantage. As it turns out, Trump’s unpredictability can work not only in Russia’s favour but also against it.

It is likely that in the near future, members of Putin’s inner circle will accuse the West of treachery and duplicity. Nevertheless, the Kremlin is unlikely to risk an overt confrontation with Trump as long as he refrains from any support for Ukraine and is effectively pressuring Kyiv into capitulation.

Although Russia’s sympathies lie entirely with Iran, the Kremlin is in no position to provide substantial assistance, as all its resources are tied up on the Ukrainian front. Moscow is hoping that Washington will become bogged down in military operations in Iran, as it did in Iraq or Afghanistan, ultimately weakening the West. In the meantime, Russia will almost certainly seek to strengthen relations with anti-Western countries, above all with China.

Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).