As Norway and Russia remain the two nations with a stable and permanent presence on Svalbard, a great geopolitical game between the two Arctic states may unfold over the archipelago. Amidst climate change, the entailing resource management considerations and Russia’s isolation from the west, the security status of this Arctic territory is growing more relevant.
Svalbard has a unique legal status, which may encourage interested actors to challenge the existing governance over the territory and the resource-rich sea surrounding it. With Russia as the main challenger, threat assessments by Norwegian secret service agencies expect an increase in hostile activity on Svalbard. Small power Norway must defend its domestic security against the intent of Moscow in an environmental and geopolitical habitat that for an inexperienced political leader may prove difficult to navigate.
The Norwegian government has failed to communicate the threat of Russia to the general public. This makes civilians vulnerable to Russian hybrid operations. Russian discontent over Svalbard’s governance is not new, but in the current security situation, turning up the temperature towards Norway does not seem unlikely. Allegations of “Russophobe governance” are not far from “clear violations of the non-discriminatory principles of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty,” which may ultimately lead to a direct challenge over the current Norwegian sovereignty on the archipelago. Rising tensions over Svalbard might be forewarnings of what can be expected of Russo-Norwegian relations in the future. Within the current legal framework, Norway, Russia, and their allies must follow the demilitarised non-discriminatory principles of the Svalbard Treaty, which both guide and limit Norway’s toolbox for ensuring territorial control. It is for that reason public acknowledgement of the security situation in the high north would be a good place to start when adjusting its interpretation to the new geopolitical reality.
Download and read: High Noon for the High North? Norway, Russia, and the Svalbard Stronghold (PDF)