European Leadership Network Seminar on Deterrence

Chaired by the ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson, former UK ambassador to NATO, the event brought together nuclear deterrence and arms control experts, former senior diplomats and military officers from the UK, United States, France, Germany, Poland and Russia to discuss various aspects of strategic stability and conventional-nuclear deterrence nexus in the context of a political confrontation between Russia and NATO. The seminar‘s participants discussed such issues as Russia‘s nuclear doctrine (particularly its implicit “escalate to de-escalate” concept); NATO’s nuclear policy and US nuclear posture review; the future of the INF Treaty and its current violations; developments in nuclear arms reduction, non-proliferation and disarmament measures, as well as the ways to rejuvenate the moribund conventional arms control and confidence building regimes in Europe.
ICDS Head of Studies Tomas Jermalavičius contributed, as a panel speaker, to the seminar‘s session on the technological challenges—new and emerging military and dual-use technologies and capabilities—to NATO-Russia nuclear deterrence relationship. In his remarks, he particularly highlighted the growing risks to strategic stability and nuclear crisis management— but also opportunities to nuclear weapons reliability, security and safety—emanating from the burgeoning cyber domain. He also stressed the need for pre-emptive arms control concerning military applications—especially in the nuclear weapons management—of the rapidly developing Artificial Intelligence technology. The session also covered such issues as the impact of space and counter-space technologies, missile defence, cruise missiles and modernisation of current nuclear arsenals and their means of delivery (e.g. Dual-Capable Aircraft, DCA).