December 4, 2017

Envisioning a Russia-NATO Crisis and Conflict

Dennis Jarvis / Flickr

On 4-5 December, ICDS Head of Studies Tomas Jermalavičius, participated and contributed, as a panellist, to a joint workshop entitled “Envisioning a Russia-NATO Crisis and Conflict: Strategy, Doctrine & Implications for Maintaining Stability.”

The event was organised by the European Leadership Network (ELN) and Center for Security Studies at ETH in Zurich, Switzerland. The workshop explored possible conflict triggers, inflection points, escalation factors and conflict termination issues in a potential security crisis between Russia and NATO. Event speakers included Commander of the US Army in Europe Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Deputy Director of the French Foundation for Strategic Research Dr Bruno Tertrais, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Nuclear and Missile Defence Policy Dr Brad Roberts, Director of the ELN and former UK Permanent Representative to NATO Sir Adam Thomson, former US Permanent Representative to NATO Douglas Lute and others. One of the sessions discussed how the ongoing confrontation in the so-called “gray zone” of conflict, or “hybrid war,” may escalate into a full-scale conventional war. As the security environment on NATO’s eastern flank is one of the key areas of concern for such an escalation, Tomas Jermalavičius shared the Baltic states‘ perspective on the dynamics of “gray zone” conflict, Russia’s strategy, risk of war and deterrence measures employed by the Alliance in the Baltic region.