When NATO heads of state and government meet in The Hague on 24 and 25 June, there will be much to talk about. Building consensus around NATO’s new capability targets has sometimes been difficult, even as existing targets remain unmet. NATO does not have an up-to-date strategy for dealing with Russia, despite agreeing to develop a new one a year ago in Washington. The US is considering reducing its forces in Europe to focus better on the challenges in the Indo-Pacific, which it views as a priority. Most urgently, Ukraine is experiencing setbacks on the battlefield and its cities are suffering devastating, almost daily attacks from the air, while the US appears to have lost all interest in leading a peace process.
Regrettably, though, there is unlikely to be substantive discussion of much of this at the Hague Summit, at least in any formal setting. Whether in response to direct messaging from Washington, or through self-generated fear of upsetting its president—anticipatory compliance—NATO headquarters seems to be aiming for a minimalist agenda with a heavy focus on Donald Trump’s main interest: defence spending. Despite Secretary General Mark Rutte’s protests to the contrary, this year’s summit does appear to be choreographed to appeal to an audience of one. NATO took a similar approach in 2019 during the first Trump presidency, when its leaders’ meeting in London (not even styled as a ‘summit’) produced a short nine-paragraph text.
Increasing defence spending is clearly important. So too is ensuring a continuing US commitment to Europe’s security. But transatlantic relations are undeniably strained, and NATO’s future is a key bone of contention. Several scenarios are quite dark and will need discussion and action if they are to be avoided. This situation will, at some point, need to be faced head-on.
Read our series of briefs that examines some of the key issues of the Hague Summit.
Brief 1. Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO
In the first brief of our Hague Summit series, Joshua Huminski examines what the Trump administration, and Washington more broadly, expects of NATO at the start of its fourth quarter-century.
Brief 2. The Central Issue: Defence Spending
In the second brief of our Hague Summit series, Felix Gasper writes about NATO members’ defence spending.
Brief 3. Recalibrating Relations with Russia
In the third brief of the series, Katarzyna Zysk explains that in order to disincentivise Russia, NATO must strengthen its posture decisively, calibrating it for sustained long-term competition and potential conflict.
Brief 4. The Regional Defence Plans
In the fourth edition of our Hague Summit series, Nele Loorents reviews the progress made in implementing the regional defence plans and the challenges that remain.
Brief 5. The EU-NATO Relationship
In the fifth brief, Marianne Paire writes about the need for greater synergy between NATO and the EU.
Brief 6. NATO-Ukraine
In the sixth brief of the series, Tony Lawrence writes about how uncertainty regarding the handling of differences between Allies presents a risk that NATO’s forthcoming summit in The Hague will not be seen as a success.