As a new government takes power under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, it is opportune to ask what the Baltic states want from Germany in terms of their security, and what might they realistically expect?
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In the fifth and final brief in our Germany and Baltic Security series, Kalev Stoicescu examines another of Germany’s key bilateral relationships—with Russia.
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The path to net zero is going to be one of the most arduous tasks of this century. A complete transformation of the energy sector will be required to keep global temperatures in check. This is true in the Baltic states as it is everywhere else in the world.
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Although the word ‘electricity’ is currently associated primarily with concerns about high prices, the fact that a stable and secure electric power supply is a national security issue essential for the functioning of the whole economy and society must not be overlooked. This is especially true for the Baltic states which continue to be connected to the Russia-managed synchronous electricity system.
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Since the end of President Vladimir Putin’s second term (2004–2008), Moscow has increasingly been looking north. In the West, this has fuelled an alarmist discourse about a ‘race for the Arctic’, but the renewed focus on the Arctic is just as much about domestic development: transforming Moscow’s frozen backyard into a ‘strategic resource base for the 21st century’.
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As part of energy security studies, the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) launched a new project to explore how development of nuclear energy in Estonia may impact its foreign and security policy interests and relations with strategic partners such as the US. The study will be conducted in cooperation with Fermi Energia.
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Vladimir Putin has been declared a world pariah. This pariah aims to “conquer Europe”, primarily by financial and economic means. But European leaders remain vague in their statements and actions against the Kremlin, while Europe’s businessmen continue to buy Russian raw materials and thereby finance anti-European propaganda. This vicious circle needs to end.
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In late 2020, Belarus inaugurated the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP). This facility – funded by the Russian government and built by the Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom – is one that Lithuania considers a threat to its national security. The project has already been causing frictions in the Baltic region that are yet to be resolved; the situation is emblematic of why and how Moscow is advancing its interests by exploiting the nuclear energy aspirations of various countries in Europe.
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Kremlin expected several serious foreign policy disappointments in the Balkan countries at the end of 2020. Russia’s monopoly on the gas market in the Balkans has been shaken, and Belgrade and Pristina move towards normalisation of economic relations.
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It is now extremely unlikely that Gazprom owned Nord Stream 2 will ever be operational in the way Moscow envisaged. US sanctions have stopped pipeline construction in its tracks. More US sanctions will be adopted before the end of the year creating further problems for the pipeline.
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