The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.
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The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
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The last six months have offered numerous examples indicating that the level of military activity in the Arctic and Baltic regions continues to increase slowly but steadily. Russian and Western forces have in different ways increased their presence in these contested regions and nations are strengthening relevant military capabilities.
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After Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO put renewed focus onto its primary task of collective defence and deterrence. It has taken several important steps, but it would be a mistake to believe that NATO’s deterrence posture in the Baltic region is complete.
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Both as intellectual concept and as actionable strategy, deterrence is complex and multifaceted. This is certainly so in the Baltic region, where no one action or policy alone can guarantee security.
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Since entering into force in 2011, the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) has helped to verifiably reduce deployed and non-deployed nuclear delivery vehicles and deployed nuclear warheads. The Treaty is due to expire in 2021, unless the parties agree to an extension – a process that has been initiated, but the outcome remains to be seen.
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The analysis highlights instrumentalisation of resilience for mitigating security threats, especially in the discourse on NATO deterrence and defence.
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Those who have read Clausewitz, not least of all the Russian military establishment, know that war is a tool of policy. Paraphrasing Clausewitz, Lenin stated that conflict and war are inseparable from the political conditions that engender them. The recommendations recently produced by a working group of experts from Russia, the United States and Europe depart from these insights.
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There is almost no doubt that former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. has won the US presidential elections, although counting of votes has not yet finished in many states, and president Donald Trump continues to refuse to acknowledge defeat.
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Occasionally, suggestions are aired about the potential participation of partner nations in NATO activities that are directly related to the Alliance’s core task of collective defence.
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