Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has given a new impetus to the EU’s enlargement. Although Ukraine and other candidate countries have a long way to go to full membership, it is useful to start analysing the potential impact of Ukraine’s accession.
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In the 18 months of the war, Ukraine has achieved significant progress in digital transformation and implementation of trust services. The current geopolitical context makes further development of innovative digital solutions, technologies, and infrastructures that are based on the EU’s values and principles ever more relevant.
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Up until the blatant act of Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022, the West had been gradually shifting its attention towards East Asia, with China seen as the primary challenge of the first half of the 21st century. The new context requires a thorough reassessment of international security architecture by all national stakeholders. This, in turn, offers Estonia and Japan the opportunity to enrich their security perspectives on common strategic threats, as well as on broader geopolitical shifts caused by Russia and China.
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Reshaped by the new great power competition, the international order has been undergoing revolutionary transformations. Revanchist Russia has unleashed a barbarian war against a sovereign European nation, while increasingly militarised and contentious China looms as a not-so-insidious threat in the Indo-Pacific. In response to these shifting dynamics and mounting geopolitical tensions, Europe is now awakening to the new reality and paying greater attention to the far-away region.
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When Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border on 24 February and reports surfaced of a parallel attack against the satellite provider Viasat, an ominous signal was given that the war had also escalated in cyberspace.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been game-changing for Europe’s security, challenging the long-held beliefs and assumptions of many Western nations and prompting dramatic shifts in policy, for example, in Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The war’s conduct has also produced significant surprises, not least the unexpectedly poor performance of Russia’s supposedly reformed military.
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The second brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns the war in cyberspace.
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In 2021, Estonia and Norway served as elected members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Both being relatively small states, defending multilateral cooperation and rules-based international order were important common goals.
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Despite a barrage of cyber-attacks from state and non-state actors, NATO’s recent communiqué reaffirmed a defensive commitment to cybersecurity without proposing new offensive responses. While some may characterize this response as ineffective, pursuing diplomatic and economic retaliation to low-grade cyber threats offers the best outcome for the Alliance.
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Estonia and Japan are among the leaders in cyber diplomacy and cybersecurity on the global stage, Japan also being a key strategic partner for the EU and NATO. They have many similarities in their approaches to cybersecurity and state behaviour in cyberspace, which has established solid ground for closer bilateral ties. This report, authored by leading Estonian and Japanese researchers of cybersecurity policy, gives a valuable insight into the experiences and perspectives of these two countries, their success stories and challenges in building a secure cyberspace, as well as the potential for cooperation.
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