September 16, 2016

Summary

AFP PHOTO / JUSTIN TALLIS
Pro-Brexit demonstrators, calling on the British government to invoke article 50 immediately, and urging them not to hold a second referendum, shout slogans and hold placards as they protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London on September 5, 2016.
Pro-Brexit demonstrators, calling on the British government to invoke article 50 immediately, and urging them not to hold a second referendum, shout slogans and hold placards as they protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London on September 5, 2016.

The September edition of Diplomaatia focuses mostly on the aftermath of Brexit and NATO Warsaw Summit. Both events may have strategic importance for Europe and Estonia in particular.

First, James Sherr, the Chatham House analyst, provides an overview on the consequences of Brexit for the United Kingdom. He reminds us that the British foreign policy may change in the future.
„Deprived of “bloc” negotiating power, the UK will be forced into an ever more commercialised foreign policy, geopolitically myopic and self-deterring, for fear of offending those from whom trade deals and foreign investment are sought. Already, there are hints that Britain might seek to “normalise” its relations with Russia,“ Sherr writes.
Diplomaatia has conducted an interview with Kurt Volker, Executive Director of the McCain Institute, on the most important foreign policy issues facing Transatlantic community. He warns of the EU being weak after Brexit. “An EU without the UK risks being more inward-looking, less defence-oriented, less free-market oriented, and—frankly—even more lopsided in terms of the role of Germany,” Volker says.
Richard Weitz from the Hudson Institutes weighs pros and contras of the NATO Warsaw Summit. According to him NATO was capable to solve some problems, but still some questions remain open. “Like other international organisations, NATO must struggle to balance collective and individual commitments. For example, the Alliance affirmed in Warsaw that developing means to counter hybrid and cyber threats was mainly a national responsibility, even though NATO was prepared to assist a member state under cyber assault…”, Weitz writes.
Jaakko Blomberg, retired Finnish diplomat, writes about the Finnish security policy. Even though Finland is not member of NATO the country may be obliged to give assistance if the EU countries are attacked, since Finland is bound by the EU Lisbon Treaty.
“The EU’s mutual assistance clause is one of the supporting pillars of Finland’s politics. Finnish as well as regional security is at stake here. Differentiating between the two is complicated,” Blomberg says.
Roman Shutov, the Ukrainian analyst, writes about the information war what Russia is waging against Ukraine as well as the Western countries.

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