Ambassador (ret.) Pauli Järvenpää gave a presentation in a seminar arranged on 26 January 2017 in Warsaw under the auspices of CEPA Strategic Stability Initiative.
The central theme of the seminar was “Strengthening Strategic Security in Central and Eastern Europe”. There are signs that U.S. extended deterrence is breaking down in Central and Eastern Europe. There are two causes for this: Russia’s introduction of limited war military strategies backed by a threat of nuclear escalation, and NATO doubts about its own capabilities, nuclear and non-nuclear.
In his remarks, Dr. Järvenpää stressed three related points: First, in order to maintain credible deterrence in Central and Eastern Europe, NATO will have to continue bolstering its conventional capabilities and placing its troops in the frontline states. Second, the Alliance will have to rethink the role of its nuclear posture and equip its nuclear forces with new capabilities. And third, the Central and Eastern European countries themselves will have to strengthen their regional and local capabilities in order to provide a credible first line of defense to raise the price of potential Russian military incursions in the region.