It has been said about the 1848 revolutions in Europe that the history of Europe should have changed, but it did not. Is the crisis in Greece as significant? Is the history of Europe going to change and if, in which direction? How does the situation in Greece influence Estonia, and what are the possible scenarios for Greece? It is most likely that we are at a crossroads, therefore, we have the option to turn up, down, left, right, stand still or turn back. Since there are very many variables in the equation of Greece, let us try and focus on the geopolitical aspects which, naturally, cannot be separated from the economical ones.
It has been said about the 1848 revolutions in Europe that the history of Europe should have changed, but it did not. Is the crisis in Greece as significant? Is the history of Europe going to change and if, in which direction? How does the situation in Greece influence Estonia, and what are the possible scenarios for Greece? It is most likely that we are at a crossroads, therefore, we have the option to turn up, down, left, right, stand still or turn back. Since there are very many variables in the equation of Greece, let us try and focus on the geopolitical aspects which, naturally, cannot be separated from the economical ones.
1st scenario—the debt of Greece is not forgiven, the country will stay in the Eurozone and pay its debts.
At the moment, this is the official version, which is supported by the European Commission as well as Estonia. If Greece succeeds, the EU can show that the Eurozone is still a successful project and, therefore, other countries can join—technocratic arguments would dominate over cultural ones (i.e., the Greek orthodox civilisation would not be a key factor). From the viewpoint of Estonian security policy, the stability of the Eurozone and EU would be commendable.
Nevertheless, there are many who doubt the success of Greece. For Estonia, the main question is, when will it become disadvantageous for us to stick to the official version (some say that it has already happened), i.e., when would be the right time to leave the sinking ship. A lot depends on the behaviour of Germany.
Continue reading: Sirp