Putin’s Contracting Matrix
Determined to ensure that in retreat, he imposes the maximum pain on others, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin is making the most of the increasingly unforgiving constraints of his environment.
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International Affairs & Foreign Policy
New Developments on Old Problems in the Balkans: Serbia Changing Partners?
On 4 September US president Donald Trump hosted a ceremony at the White House attended by the president of Serbia, Alexander Vucic, and the prime minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti, at which US-brokered agreements were signed on normalising economic relations between the two Balkan countries.
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Interview: is the dream of Peace Pipelines coming to an end?
The dispute between Greece and Turkey over maritime territories goes back generations and remains unresolved. As competition over natural gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean intensifies, the situation has become dangerously militarised. With the help of Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, we assess what is different about the same old debate this time and why it has become heated now, and we look at the fallout between the two NATO allies, reactions within the EU, the grievances of both countries and the wider international setting that contributes to the tensions.
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Integration for the Sake of Salvation
The domestic power base of dictator Alexander Lukashenko is now mostly limited to Belarus’ security structures. Although he is still popular with aged babushkas and dedushkas, who see no reason for or even fear change, Lukashenko can no longer count on blue-collar support from the ‘working collectives’ of the large state-owned factories, or from the younger generations of Belarusians protesting with the white-red-white flags he detests.
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Relations between the West and Russia Need Emergency Care
On 7 September, German doctors treating Alexei Navalny in the Charité hospital in Berlin announced that he had been brought out of an induced coma and taken off mechanical ventilation, emergency treatments he had received in response to his poisoning. Navalny’s condition has improved. He responds to verbal stimuli, but it is too early to assess whether there will be any long-term effects on his health.
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Why Was Alexei Navalnyi Poisoned Now? And Why Was He Handed Over to Germany?
On 20 August, prominent Kremlin critic Alexei Navalnyi collapsed on board a commercial flight, causing it to make an emergency landing in Omsk. Navalnyi’s condition had changed suddenly and violently during the flight and the aircraft captain’s swift decision probably saved his life. His family, friends and supporters immediately—and with good reason—suspected that he had been poisoned.
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Russia Can Use Both Hard and Soft Power to Prop Up Lukashenko
Russia is supporting Alexander Lukashenko behind the scenes. But Lukashenko is also working hard preparing the ground for inviting Russian troops into Belarus if necessary.
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The EU Should Be Prepared to Defend the Independence of Belarus
With Belarus rapidly moving towards a post-Lukashenko era, the EU has no credible option but to support Belarusians’ bottom-up demands for democracy. This has geopolitical implications that the EU needs to be prepared to address. Russia is determined to maintain control over Belarus and likely to perceive the EU’s engagement as undesirable if not threatening.
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How Do You Solve a Problem Like Belarus?
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may remain in power, but the election and its aftermath leave no doubt that he is ruling by force and fraud. The West will need to adjust its approach to Minsk accordingly.
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Will Lukashenko Survive the Fraudulent Presidential Elections?
No one, including the growing internal opposition in Belarus, doubted that the country’s long-lived dictator Alexander Lukashenko would formally win a sixth presidential term in the 9 August 2020 elections. Many people in Belarus want change, but he himself is not ready to go.
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