March 4, 2014

Stopping Russian Blitz in Ukraine

In essence, you could see some similarities between what is happening in Ukraine now to how Germans got stuck in Soviet geography, climate and continuous resistance in WW II.

In essence, you could see some similarities between what is happening in Ukraine now to how Germans got stuck in Soviet geography, climate and continuous resistance in WW II.

Ukrainian stubborn and heroic refusal to use force continuously undermines Russian narrative of upheaval, terror and conflict. Russians find it increasingly difficult to break passive resistance of Ukrainians with brute force when the world’s media is increasingly focused on the events in Crimea. Last session in UNSC gave no support to Russia and yesterday they lost 60 billion dollars. At the same time, Ukrainian military build-up is blocking the road to further escalation through exponentially growing costs.

Hence, Ukrainians seem to pursue classic military course of action against a superior enemy: (1) delay until you can defend; (2) defend and seek opportunities for counteroffensive while building up your strength, and (3) then press the enemy back.

The counteroffensive and pressing Russian troops out without resorting to military force could only happen with the help of Western powers. Hence, it does seem too early, indeed to freeze the situation and drown it in endless diplomacy.

Russian Federation should be put on the back foot first, and once they have lost their balance, the pressure could be relieved (just a tiny bit for the economy of effort), but not sufficiently to allow them to dig in before they are happily back in their motherland.

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