On May 12-13, 2016, the ICDS researcher Kalev Stoicescu participated in a Wilton Park conference on “NATO and Russia: What Next?“, conducted at Wiston House Estate under the tagname „Deterrence“. The conference participation was by invitation only, and was entitled: „Rethinking deterrence and assurance: Russia’s strategy relating to regional coercion and possible war and NATO’s response“.
- Assessed the political and military dimensions of Russia’s strategy for regional coercion and possible war against a NATO member;
- Identified potential escalation dynamics in a Russia-NATO confrontation, especially if Russia should try to escalate its way out of failed conventional aggression with nuclear de-escalation strikes and other means;
- Understood the challenges and requirements of effectively countering Russia’s strategy;
- Identified and explored key decisions that NATO will have to take at the July Warsaw summit bearing on the future evolution of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture, including its nuclear component.
The general opinion expressed by participants is that NATO’s conventional deterrence has a clear regional dimension in the Baltic Sea area, and that needs to be considerably strengthened. NATO’s overall deterrence has also sub-conventional and nuclear dimensions that have to be equally addressed in order to be able to respond to Russia’s increasingly aggressive and hostile behaviour.